Draft Value vs ADP · 2026-27

Two ways the market can be wrong about a player. Level — we rank him well ahead of or behind where he is drafted. Direction — he is moving against his own last season and his price has not moved with him.

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pick the categories your league counts and the tiers re-score for them

Value and rank computed for Categories — equal-weight z-scores: G, A, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK + W, SV%, GAA.

💎 Undervalued · we rank them ahead of their price

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	Trend	z-value
1	Roman Kantserov CHI · R	CHI	R	71	258.7	+187.7	—	+4.7
2	Will Cuylle NYR · L	NYR	L	59	203.7	+144.7	-0.1	+5.4
3	Eeli Tolvanen NYR · R	NYR	R	109	253.3	+144.3	-0.3	+3.3
4	Fabian Zetterlund OTT · L	OTT	L	164	292.3	+128.3	+0.7	+1.6
5	Kiefer Sherwood SJS · L	SJS	L	70	191.6	+121.6	-1.6	+4.8
6	Yakov Trenin MIN · C	MIN	C	158	276.2	+118.2	-1.1	+1.8
7	Alexander Romanov NYI · D	NYI	D	170	286.8	+116.8	—	+1.4
8	Elias Lindholm BOS · C	BOS	C	121	235.3	+114.3	-0.0	+2.9
9	Anton Lundell FLA · C	FLA	C	136	246.5	+110.5	-0.5	+2.4
10	Emmitt Finnie DET · L	DET	L	181	291.3	+110.3	+1.5	+1.3
11	Vasily Podkolzin EDM · R	EDM	R	155	264.8	+109.8	-0.6	+1.8
12	Jack McBain UTA · C	UTA	C	176	285.2	+109.2	+0.0	+1.3
13	Emil Heineman NYI · L	NYI	L	152	258.1	+106.1	-0.8	+1.9
14	Brayden Schenn NYI · C	NYI	C	171	276.2	+105.2	+0.0	+1.4
15	Mackie Samoskevich SEA · R	SEA	R	166	267.3	+101.3	+0.7	+1.5
16	Ben Kindel PIT · C	PIT	C	188	288.3	+100.3	+1.4	+1.2
17	Alex Laferriere LAK · R	LAK	R	77	176.5	+99.5	-0.4	+4.5
18	Matty Beniers SEA · C	SEA	C	150	248.4	+98.4	+0.6	+2.0
19	Dylan Cozens OTT · C	OTT	C	35	130.3	+95.3	-0.5	+6.8
20	Ryan Leonard WSH · R	WSH	R	113	206	+93.0	+1.1	+3.1
21	Braden Schneider NYR · D	NYR	D	197	289.7	+92.7	-0.0	+1.0
22	Jake DeBrusk VAN · L	VAN	L	115	207.6	+92.6	-0.1	+3.0
23	Jake Neighbours STL · L	STL	L	161	249.4	+88.4	+0.5	+1.6
24	Marco Kasper DET · C	DET	C	203	290.2	+87.2	+1.1	+0.9
25	Anton Frondell CHI · C	CHI	C	105	188.9	+83.9	—	+3.4
26	Jack Quinn BUF · R	BUF	R	173	252.1	+79.1	+0.7	+1.4
27	Jimmy Snuggerud STL · R	STL	R	85	163.7	+78.7	+2.0	+4.2
28	Beckett Sennecke ANA · R	ANA	R	47	125	+78.0	+2.9	+5.9
29	William Eklund OTT · L	OTT	L	88	164.5	+76.5	+1.1	+4.0
30	Mathieu Olivier CBJ · R	CBJ	R	209	284.8	+75.8	-0.8	+0.8
31	Lawson Crouse UTA · L	UTA	L	151	224.6	+73.6	-0.9	+2.0
32	Tomas Hertl VGK · C	VGK	C	67	140.5	+73.5	+0.5	+5.0
33	Dawson Mercer NJD · C	NJD	C	219	290.8	+71.8	+0.5	+0.6
34	Marco Rossi VAN · C	VAN	C	174	245.7	+71.7	-0.2	+1.3
35	Anders Lee UTA · L	UTA	L	167	238.3	+71.3	+0.7	+1.5
36	Neal Pionk WPG · D	WPG	D	189	260.1	+71.1	+0.1	+1.1
37	Joel Farabee CGY · L	CGY	L	222	292.9	+70.9	+1.0	+0.5
38	Rickard Rakell PIT · R	PIT	R	80	149.3	+69.3	-0.5	+4.5
39	Blake Coleman MIN · L	MIN	L	154	222.2	+68.2	-0.7	+1.9
40	Morgan Frost CGY · C	CGY	C	210	277.3	+67.3	-0.0	+0.7

⚠ Overvalued · going earlier than the projection supports

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	Trend	z-value
1	John Marino UTA · D	UTA	D	519	203.2	-315.8	+0.1	-3.6
2	Arshdeep Bains VAN · L	VAN	L	599	291.9	-307.1	-0.2	-6.9
3	Alexander Holtz VGK · R	VGK	R	597	292.4	-304.6	-0.7	-6.0
4	Nico Sturm MIN · C	MIN	C	591	292.6	-298.4	-0.0	-5.7
5	Nils Hoglander NSH · L	NSH	L	590	292.4	-297.6	+0.4	-5.6
6	Isak Rosen WPG · R	WPG	R	589	292.5	-296.5	-0.3	-5.5
7	Sam Colangelo ANA · R	ANA	R	588	292.6	-295.4	—	-5.5
8	Adam Edstrom NSH · C	NSH	C	587	291.9	-295.1	-0.6	-5.5
9	Matt Rempe NYR · C	NYR	C	586	291.9	-294.1	+0.1	-5.4
10	Emil Lilleberg TBL · D	TBL	D	585	292.1	-292.9	-0.6	-5.4
11	Stephen Halliday OTT · C	OTT	C	584	292.8	-291.2	-0.4	-5.4
12	Cody Glass NJD · C	NJD	C	582	292.5	-289.5	-0.6	-5.4
13	Michael Misa SJS · C	SJS	C	497	207.8	-289.2	+1.1	-3.2
14	Erik Gustafsson LAK · D	LAK	D	580	292.1	-287.9	—	-5.2
15	Joel Kiviranta DAL · L	DAL	L	578	292.6	-285.4	-0.1	-5.1
16	Owen Michaels EDM · R	EDM	R	577	291.9	-285.1	—	-5.0
17	Conor Geekie TBL · C	TBL	C	576	292.8	-283.2	—	-5.0
18	Declan Chisholm NJD · D	NJD	D	575	292.6	-282.4	-0.0	-5.0
19	Hendrix Lapierre PIT · C	PIT	C	574	292.6	-281.4	+0.5	-5.0
20	Johnathan Kovacevic NJD · D	NJD	D	573	292.4	-280.6	-0.5	-5.0
21	Zach Bogosian MIN · D	MIN	D	572	292.5	-279.5	-0.2	-5.0
22	Dmitri Simashev UTA · D	UTA	D	571	292.9	-278.1	+1.5	-4.9
23	Nils Lundkvist DAL · D	DAL	D	570	292.3	-277.7	-0.2	-4.9
24	Andrei Kuzmenko PIT · L	PIT	L	555	277.6	-277.4	-0.9	-4.4
25	Nikolas Matinpalo OTT · D	OTT	D	568	291.9	-276.1	-0.1	-4.8
26	Cole Koepke WPG · L	WPG	L	567	292.5	-274.5	-0.6	-4.8
27	Josh Mahura SEA · D	SEA	D	566	292.6	-273.4	-0.9	-4.8
28	Lars Eller FLA · C	FLA	C	565	292.5	-272.5	-0.0	-4.7
29	Michael Carcone UTA · L	UTA	L	564	292.9	-271.1	-1.1	-4.5
30	Daniil But UTA · L	UTA	L	563	292.6	-270.4	+1.3	-4.5
31	Jordan Greenway CHI · L	CHI	L	562	292.5	-269.5	+0.8	-4.5
32	Ryan Lomberg CBJ · L	CBJ	L	561	292.6	-268.4	-0.9	-4.5
33	Alexey Toropchenko STL · R	STL	R	560	292.3	-267.7	-0.3	-4.5
34	Kailer Yamamoto UTA · R	UTA	R	559	292.4	-266.6	-0.6	-4.5
35	Declan Carlile PIT · D	PIT	D	557	292.2	-264.8	+0.5	-4.4
36	Drew Helleson ANA · D	ANA	D	556	292.3	-263.7	+0.1	-4.4
37	Adam Wilsby NSH · D	NSH	D	554	292.5	-261.5	+0.3	-4.3
38	Dominic James TBL · C	TBL	C	553	292.5	-260.5	+0.1	-4.3
39	Colin Blackwell DAL · C	DAL	C	552	292.5	-259.5	-0.5	-4.3
40	Jonatan Berggren STL · R	STL	R	551	292.6	-258.4	-0.7	-4.2

📈 Rising, and not yet repriced · going after pick 100

Projected to gain on last season in the categories this league counts, and still available late. A riser the room already knows about is priced as one.

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Age	ADP	G+A	Biggest mover	Move
1	Isaac Howard EDM · L	EDM	L	22	292.8	5 → 25	SOG 1.24 → 2.93	+5.5
2	Beckett Sennecke ANA · R	ANA	R	20	125	60 → 79	G 0.28 → 0.41	+2.9
3	Frank Vatrano ANA · R	ANA	R	32	275.3	9 → 28	G 0.1 → 0.21	+2.7
4	Ivan Demidov MTL · R	MTL	R	20	127	62 → 75	A 0.52 → 0.65	+2.3
5	Ville Koivunen PIT · R	PIT	R	23	292.6	7 → 24	G 0.05 → 0.14	+2.2
6	Jimmy Snuggerud STL · R	STL	R	22	163.7	51 → 68	G 0.3 → 0.37	+2.0
7	Matvei Michkov PHI · R	PHI	R	21	163.5	51 → 62	PPP 0.15 → 0.21	+1.9
8	Stefan Noesen NJD · R	NJD	R	33	292.5	7 → 20	G 0.08 → 0.16	+1.9
9	Maxim Tsyplakov CGY · R	CGY	R	28	292.9	4 → 11	PPP 0 → 0.05	+1.6
10	Kent Johnson CBJ · C	CBJ	C	24	289.5	22 → 34	G 0.09 → 0.18	+1.6
11	Braeden Bowman VGK · R	VGK	R	23	292.9	26 → 40	G 0.15 → 0.25	+1.6
12	Zach Benson BUF · L	BUF	L	21	188.9	43 → 53	PPP 0.08 → 0.2	+1.5
13	Victor Hedman TBL · D	TBL	D	35	114.1	17 → 46	G 0.03 → 0.12	+1.5
14	Dmitri Simashev UTA · D	UTA	D	21	292.9	1 → 7	SOG 0.93 → 1.26	+1.5
15	Emmitt Finnie DET · L	DET	L	21	291.3	30 → 40	G 0.16 → 0.24	+1.5
16	Phillip Danault MTL · C	MTL	C	33	292.1	17 → 29	G 0.08 → 0.14	+1.4
17	Ben Kindel PIT · C	PIT	C	19	288.3	35 → 46	G 0.22 → 0.3	+1.4
18	Zayne Parekh CGY · D	CGY	D	20	197	9 → 17	BLK 0.81 → 1.03	+1.4
19	Sean Monahan CBJ · C	CBJ	C	32	292.1	36 → 44	G 0.17 → 0.23	+1.3
20	J.T. Miller NYR · C	NYR	C	33	112.3	53 → 68	G 0.25 → 0.31	+1.3
21	Daniil But UTA · L	UTA	L	21	292.6	7 → 16	G 0.1 → 0.19	+1.3
22	Luke Hughes NJD · D	NJD	D	23	163.5	35 → 49	PPP 0.19 → 0.24	+1.3
23	Jordan Kyrou WSH · R	WSH	R	28	137.3	46 → 59	G 0.25 → 0.33	+1.3
24	Valeri Nichushkin CBJ · R	CBJ	R	31	189.7	49 → 51	G 0.24 → 0.33	+1.3
25	Cole Perfetti WPG · L	WPG	L	24	273.6	32 → 46	G 0.18 → 0.26	+1.3
26	Jonathan Marchessault NSH · R	NSH	R	35	251.6	31 → 44	G 0.19 → 0.27	+1.3
27	Ryan Greene CHI · C	CHI	C	22	292.6	29 → 37	G 0.15 → 0.21	+1.3
28	Berkly Catton SEA · C	SEA	C	20	292.5	17 → 27	G 0.11 → 0.18	+1.2
29	Cole Sillinger CBJ · C	CBJ	C	23	293	33 → 41	G 0.1 → 0.19	+1.2
30	Mason McTavish STL · C	STL	C	23	205.5	41 → 52	G 0.23 → 0.3	+1.2
31	JJ Peterka BOS · R	BOS	R	24	178.5	47 → 53	PPP 0.06 → 0.12	+1.2
32	Oliver Moore CHI · C	CHI	C	21	292.7	19 → 27	G 0.1 → 0.14	+1.1
33	Ryan Leonard WSH · R	WSH	R	21	206	45 → 53	SOG 2.04 → 2.31	+1.1
34	Marco Kasper DET · C	DET	C	22	290.2	19 → 29	G 0.11 → 0.19	+1.1
35	Bowen Byram CHI · D	CHI	D	25	115.9	42 → 41	PPP 0.09 → 0.18	+1.1
36	Barrett Hayton UTA · C	UTA	C	26	293.5	25 → 37	G 0.15 → 0.24	+1.1
37	Samuel Girard PIT · D	PIT	D	28	292.7	19 → 22	BLK 0.97 → 1.2	+1.1
38	William Eklund OTT · L	OTT	L	24	164.5	53 → 67	G 0.19 → 0.29	+1.1
39	Lucas Raymond DET · L	DET	L	24	100.1	76 → 84	PPP 0.34 → 0.39	+1.1
40	Michael Misa SJS · C	SJS	C	19	207.8	21 → 31	SOG 1.29 → 1.61	+1.1

📉 Slipping, and still being paid for · going inside pick 100

Projected to give back ground and still drafted early. This is a don't-pay-last-year's-price list, not a don't-draft list.

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Age	ADP	G+A	Biggest mover	Move
1	Darren Raddysh TOR · D	TOR	D	30	65.1	70 → 58	G 0.3 → 0.17	-3.2
2	Mika Zibanejad NYR · C	NYR	C	33	66.9	78 → 72	G 0.42 → 0.34	-1.8
3	Steven Stamkos NSH · C	NSH	C	36	95.5	66 → 54	G 0.51 → 0.38	-1.3
4	Jakob Chychrun WSH · D	WSH	D	28	48.1	60 → 51	G 0.33 → 0.24	-1.1
5	Brock Faber MIN · D	MIN	D	24	93.3	51 → 42	G 0.19 → 0.13	-1.0
6	Erik Karlsson PIT · D	PIT	D	36	81.3	66 → 59	PPP 0.35 → 0.29	-0.9
7	Pavel Dorofeyev NYR · R	NYR	R	25	96.9	64 → 56	G 0.45 → 0.39	-0.9
8	Jason Robertson DAL · L	DAL	L	27	12	96 → 96	G 0.55 → 0.49	-0.8
9	Charlie McAvoy BOS · D	BOS	D	28	95.5	61 → 57	PPP 0.33 → 0.27	-0.8
10	Cole Caufield MTL · R	MTL	R	25	18.9	88 → 79	G 0.63 → 0.51	-0.8
11	Tage Thompson BUF · C	BUF	C	28	27.8	81 → 76	G 0.49 → 0.45	-0.8
12	Alex Tuch WSH · R	WSH	R	30	71	66 → 62	G 0.42 → 0.35	-0.7
13	Cutter Gauthier ANA · L	ANA	L	22	45.4	69 → 68	G 0.54 → 0.44	-0.5
14	Zach Hyman EDM · L	EDM	L	34	75.8	52 → 62	PPP 0.26 → 0.24	-0.5
15	Mark Scheifele WPG · C	WPG	C	33	41	103 → 91	G 0.44 → 0.39	-0.4
16	Alex DeBrincat DET · R	DET	R	28	43.2	85 → 82	SOG 3.5 → 3.25	-0.4
17	John Carlson TBL · D	TBL	D	36	69.4	60 → 54	G 0.2 → 0.16	-0.4
18	Jackson LaCombe ANA · D	ANA	D	25	87.5	58 → 54	A 0.59 → 0.53	-0.4
19	Matt Boldy MIN · L	MIN	L	25	15.2	85 → 89	G 0.55 → 0.48	-0.4
20	Martin Necas COL · R	COL	R	27	24.3	100 → 97	G 0.49 → 0.4	-0.4
21	Leon Draisaitl EDM · C	EDM	C	30	7.1	97 → 112	G 0.54 → 0.5	-0.3
22	Sidney Crosby PIT · C	PIT	C	39	53.3	74 → 71	G 0.43 → 0.37	-0.3
23	Adrian Kempe LAK · R	LAK	R	30	59.9	73 → 71	G 0.44 → 0.39	-0.2
24	Adam Fox NYR · D	NYR	D	28	64.8	53 → 71	PPP 0.44 → 0.39	-0.2
25	Drake Batherson OTT · R	OTT	R	28	92.3	71 → 69	G 0.42 → 0.35	-0.2
26	Mikhail Sergachev UTA · D	UTA	D	28	86.8	59 → 56	SOG 2.04 → 1.84	-0.2
27	Wyatt Johnston DAL · C	DAL	C	23	29.5	86 → 89	SOG 2.51 → 2.73	-0.1
28	Miro Heiskanen DAL · D	DAL	D	27	71.6	63 → 60	PPP 0.36 → 0.34	-0.1
29	Nick Suzuki MTL · C	MTL	C	27	20.1	101 → 104	PPP 0.52 → 0.49	-0.1
30	Alex Ovechkin WSH · L	WSH	L	41	81.5	64 → 50	SOG 2.98 → 2.82	-0.1
31	Evan Bouchard EDM · D	EDM	D	26	15.4	95 → 92	G 0.26 → 0.23	-0.1
32	Dylan Larkin DET · C	DET	C	30	83	67 → 74	SOG 3.09 → 2.92	-0.0
33	Zach Werenski CBJ · D	CBJ	D	29	13.6	81 → 84	G 0.29 → 0.25	-0.0

Trend and Move are the change in per-game value across every category this league counts, projected 2026-27 against actual 2025-26 (minimum 20 games played). G+A is shown because it is the number everyone carries in their head, but it is not what the ordering is on: a player can gain points and still slip in a league paying him for hits or blocks, and Biggest mover names the per-game category doing the most work either way. A player with no comparable last season shows no trend rather than a zero.