Draft Value vs ADP · 2026-27

Biggest gaps between our projected multi-category value rank and consensus ADP. Positive gap = drafted later than our value (a sleeper); negative = going earlier than the projection supports.

Ranked for Categories — equal-weight z-scores: G, A, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK. Consensus ADP from espn, fantrax.

💎 Undervalued · draft targets

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	z-value
1	Anton Lundell FLA · C	FLA	C	133	279	+146.0	+3.0
2	Fabian Zetterlund OTT · L	OTT	L	162	292.5	+130.5	+2.1
3	Yakov Trenin MIN · C	MIN	C	157	284.4	+127.4	+2.3
4	Emil Heineman NYI · L	NYI	L	152	279.2	+127.2	+2.3
5	Brayden Schenn NYI · C	NYI	C	163	288.4	+125.4	+2.0
6	Will Cuylle NYR · L	NYR	L	65	189.1	+124.1	+5.6
7	Lawson Crouse UTA · L	UTA	L	147	270.4	+123.4	+2.4
8	Matty Beniers SEA · C	SEA	C	144	265	+121.0	+2.5
9	Anton Frondell CHI · C	CHI	C	56	175.9	+119.9	+6.0
10	Kiefer Sherwood SJS · L	SJS	L	61	179.9	+118.9	+5.7
11	Jake DeBrusk VAN · L	VAN	L	118	235.1	+117.1	+3.4
12	Neal Pionk WPG · D	WPG	D	159	275.6	+116.6	+2.2
13	Emmitt Finnie DET · C	DET	C	175	291.2	+116.2	+1.8
14	Noah Hanifin VGK · D	VGK	D	171	287.1	+116.1	+1.8
15	Blake Coleman MIN · L	MIN	L	150	262.5	+112.5	+2.3
16	Colton Parayko STL · D	STL	D	172	283.8	+111.8	+1.8
17	Vasily Podkolzin EDM · R	EDM	R	169	280.6	+111.6	+1.8
18	Ben Kindel PIT · C	PIT	C	167	278.1	+111.1	+1.9
19	Jack McBain UTA · C	UTA	C	176	286.6	+110.6	+1.7
20	Marco Rossi VAN · C	VAN	C	156	266.2	+110.2	+2.3
21	Elias Lindholm BOS · C	BOS	C	129	238.7	+109.7	+3.1
22	Anders Lee UTA · L	UTA	L	166	274.1	+108.1	+1.9
23	Roman Kantserov CHI · R	CHI	R	184	288	+104.0	+1.7
24	Jeremy Lauzon VGK · D	VGK	D	187	290.6	+103.6	+1.6
25	Mackie Samoskevich SEA · R	SEA	R	188	286.3	+98.3	+1.6
26	Braden Schneider NYR · D	NYR	D	199	293.4	+94.4	+1.4
27	Martin Fehérváry WSH · D	WSH	D	196	290.2	+94.2	+1.4
28	Justin Faulk DET · D	DET	D	182	271.8	+89.8	+1.7
29	Kris Letang PIT · D	PIT	D	200	288.9	+88.9	+1.4
30	Frank Vatrano ANA · R	ANA	R	206	291.6	+85.6	+1.2
31	Jonathan Marchessault NSH · R	NSH	R	204	289	+85.0	+1.3
32	Jake Neighbours STL · L	STL	L	193	276.7	+83.7	+1.5
33	Jake McCabe TOR · D	TOR	D	207	290.6	+83.6	+1.2
34	Adam Larsson SEA · D	SEA	D	209	292.6	+83.6	+1.2
35	Nikita Zadorov BOS · D	BOS	D	202	284.8	+82.8	+1.3
36	Sean Walker CAR · D	CAR	D	174	255.2	+81.2	+1.8
37	Mario Ferraro WPG · D	WPG	D	211	290.9	+79.9	+1.1
38	Morgan Frost CGY · C	CGY	C	212	290.8	+78.8	+1.1
39	Shane Pinto OTT · C	OTT	C	192	268.9	+76.9	+1.5
40	Brock Boeser VAN · R	VAN	R	134	210.3	+76.3	+3.0

⚠ Overvalued · ADP reaches

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	z-value
1	Stephen Halliday OTT · C	OTT	C	633	291.4	-341.6	-4.7
2	Zayne Parekh CGY · D	CGY	D	535	195.8	-339.2	-3.1
3	Cole Hutson WSH · D	WSH	D	446	124.9	-321.1	-2.0
4	Tim Washe ANA · C	ANA	C	611	291.4	-319.6	-4.2
5	Konsta Helenius BUF · C	BUF	C	604	291.7	-312.3	-4.0
6	Tyler Seguin DAL · C	DAL	C	585	275.2	-309.8	-3.7
7	Rasmus Sandin WSH · D	WSH	D	586	291.2	-294.8	-3.7
8	Maxim Shabanov MIN · R	MIN	R	581	291.8	-289.2	-3.7
9	Michael Misa SJS · C	SJS	C	492	217.3	-274.7	-2.6
10	Corey Perry LAK · R	LAK	R	554	293	-261.0	-3.3
11	Troy Terry ANA · R	ANA	R	419	163	-256.0	-1.8
12	Simon Nemec CGY · D	CGY	D	405	155	-250.0	-1.6
13	Chase Reid SEA · D	SEA	D	527	281.1	-245.9	-3.0
14	Marat Khusnutdinov BOS · C	BOS	C	534	292.3	-241.7	-3.1
15	Philip Broberg STL · D	STL	D	406	170.7	-235.3	-1.6
16	John Marino UTA · D	UTA	D	524	290.5	-233.5	-3.0
17	Ryan Shea EDM · D	EDM	D	519	292.3	-226.7	-2.9
18	Gabe Perreault NYR · R	NYR	R	460	244.5	-215.5	-2.2
19	Chris Tanev TOR · D	TOR	D	504	292.4	-211.6	-2.7
20	Alex Newhook MTL · C	MTL	C	486	291.3	-194.7	-2.5
21	Lian Bichsel DAL · D	DAL	D	481	290.7	-190.3	-2.4
22	Nate Schmidt UTA · D	UTA	D	480	293.3	-186.7	-2.4
23	Yan Kuznetsov CGY · D	CGY	D	477	293.2	-183.8	-2.4
24	Jamie Drysdale PHI · D	PHI	D	377	204.7	-172.3	-1.2
25	Sam Dickinson SJS · D	SJS	D	434	267.6	-166.4	-1.9
26	Porter Martone PHI · R	PHI	R	239	74.8	-164.2	+0.7
27	Ilya Mikheyev TBL · R	TBL	R	456	292.1	-163.9	-2.1
28	Andrei Kuzmenko PIT · L	PIT	L	449	288.9	-160.1	-2.0
29	Ryan McDonagh TBL · D	TBL	D	447	291	-156.0	-2.0
30	Alberts Smits NYR · D	NYR	D	442	289.3	-152.7	-1.9
31	Sam Rinzel CHI · D	CHI	D	444	293.6	-150.4	-2.0
32	Brett Howden VGK · C	VGK	C	441	291.2	-149.8	-1.9
33	Victor Olofsson VGK · L	VGK	L	440	293	-147.0	-1.9
34	Matvei Gridin CGY · R	CGY	R	421	276.2	-144.8	-1.8
35	Drew Doughty LAK · D	LAK	D	432	289.4	-142.6	-1.9
36	Egor Chinakhov PIT · R	PIT	R	323	183.1	-139.9	-0.7
37	Dalibor Dvorsky STL · R	STL	R	429	291.1	-137.9	-1.9
38	Shea Theodore VGK · D	VGK	D	234	99.9	-134.1	+0.7
39	Bowen Byram CHI · D	CHI	D	235	103.4	-131.6	+0.7
40	Kaapo Kakko SEA · R	SEA	R	417	290.6	-126.4	-1.8