Draft Value vs ADP · 2026-27

Two ways the market can be wrong about a player. Level — we rank him well ahead of or behind where he is drafted. Direction — he is moving against his own last season and his price has not moved with him.

my league is

pick the categories your league counts and the tiers re-score for them

Value and rank computed for Points league — G=3, A=2, PPP=1, SOG=0.4, HIT/BLK=0.3, PIM=0.3.

💎 Undervalued · we rank them ahead of their price

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	Trend	z-value
1	Roman Kantserov CHI · R	CHI	R	69	258.7	+189.7	—	+310.7
2	Will Cuylle NYR · L	NYR	L	73	203.7	+130.7	+0.0	+304.0
3	Anton Lundell FLA · C	FLA	C	126	246.5	+120.5	-0.1	+256.8
4	Ben Kindel PIT · C	PIT	C	171	288.3	+117.3	+0.5	+230.2
5	Eeli Tolvanen NYR · R	NYR	R	140	253.3	+113.3	-0.0	+245.2
6	Brayden Schenn NYI · C	NYI	C	169	276.2	+107.2	+0.0	+230.5
7	Matty Beniers SEA · C	SEA	C	142	248.4	+106.4	+0.2	+244.7
8	Elias Lindholm BOS · C	BOS	C	132	235.3	+103.3	-0.0	+253.7
9	Ryan Leonard WSH · R	WSH	R	106	206	+100.0	+0.3	+273.8
10	Vasily Podkolzin EDM · R	EDM	R	167	264.8	+97.8	-0.2	+231.4
11	Dawson Mercer NJD · C	NJD	C	193	290.8	+97.8	+0.1	+221.9
12	Alex Laferriere LAK · R	LAK	R	79	176.5	+97.5	-0.0	+294.0
13	Fabian Zetterlund OTT · L	OTT	L	196	292.3	+96.3	+0.2	+220.8
14	Jack McBain UTA · C	UTA	C	189	285.2	+96.2	-0.0	+223.0
15	Kiefer Sherwood SJS · L	SJS	L	97	191.6	+94.6	-0.5	+280.1
16	Jack Quinn BUF · R	BUF	R	158	252.1	+94.1	+0.2	+235.2
17	Anders Lee UTA · L	UTA	L	145	238.3	+93.3	+0.2	+243.4
18	Beckett Sennecke ANA · R	ANA	R	33	125	+92.0	+0.9	+355.8
19	Jimmy Snuggerud STL · R	STL	R	72	163.7	+91.7	+0.6	+304.3
20	Matt Coronato CGY · R	CGY	R	155	245.5	+90.5	+0.3	+236.9
21	Dylan Cozens OTT · C	OTT	C	40	130.3	+90.3	-0.1	+344.9
22	Emmitt Finnie DET · L	DET	L	201	291.3	+90.3	+0.5	+218.4
23	Mathieu Olivier CBJ · R	CBJ	R	198	284.8	+86.8	-0.3	+219.4
24	William Eklund OTT · L	OTT	L	78	164.5	+86.5	+0.4	+294.2
25	Conor Garland CBJ · R	CBJ	R	207	293.4	+86.4	+0.2	+214.7
26	Mackie Samoskevich SEA · R	SEA	R	182	267.3	+85.3	+0.3	+226.7
27	Cole Sillinger CBJ · C	CBJ	C	210	293	+83.0	+0.4	+212.7
28	Mason McTavish STL · C	STL	C	124	205.5	+81.5	+0.4	+259.6
29	Jake Neighbours STL · L	STL	L	168	249.4	+81.4	+0.1	+231.2
30	Noah Cates PHI · C	PHI	C	212	292.3	+80.3	-0.2	+212.1
31	Shane Pinto OTT · C	OTT	C	164	244.1	+80.1	-0.1	+232.4
32	Blake Coleman MIN · L	MIN	L	143	222.2	+79.2	-0.2	+243.6
33	Sam Bennett FLA · C	FLA	C	64	142.7	+78.7	+0.1	+317.4
34	Jake DeBrusk VAN · L	VAN	L	130	207.6	+77.6	+0.0	+255.0
35	Anton Frondell CHI · C	CHI	C	114	188.9	+74.9	—	+268.7
36	Dmitri Voronkov CBJ · L	CBJ	L	192	266.1	+74.1	-0.0	+221.9
37	James Hagens BOS · L	BOS	L	156	228.2	+72.2	—	+236.7
38	Marco Kasper DET · C	DET	C	218	290.2	+72.2	+0.4	+210.2
39	Lawson Crouse UTA · L	UTA	L	153	224.6	+71.6	-0.3	+238.3
40	Cole Perfetti WPG · L	WPG	L	203	273.6	+70.6	+0.4	+217.4

⚠ Overvalued · going earlier than the projection supports

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	Trend	z-value
1	Arshdeep Bains VAN · L	VAN	L	599	291.9	-307.1	-0.1	+40.2
2	Adam Edstrom NSH · C	NSH	C	592	291.9	-300.1	-0.2	+62.0
3	Alexander Holtz VGK · R	VGK	R	591	292.4	-298.6	-0.3	+62.3
4	John Marino UTA · D	UTA	D	501	203.2	-297.8	-0.0	+114.1
5	Nico Sturm MIN · C	MIN	C	588	292.6	-295.4	-0.1	+65.7
6	Sam Colangelo ANA · R	ANA	R	587	292.6	-294.4	—	+67.3
7	Isak Rosen WPG · R	WPG	R	586	292.5	-293.5	-0.0	+69.7
8	Matt Rempe NYR · C	NYR	C	585	291.9	-293.1	+0.2	+69.8
9	Nils Hoglander NSH · L	NSH	L	584	292.4	-291.6	+0.2	+69.9
10	Declan Chisholm NJD · D	NJD	D	583	292.6	-290.4	-0.1	+71.9
11	Zach Bogosian MIN · D	MIN	D	582	292.5	-289.5	-0.1	+73.7
12	Josh Mahura SEA · D	SEA	D	581	292.6	-288.4	-0.2	+73.9
13	Emil Lilleberg TBL · D	TBL	D	580	292.1	-287.9	-0.3	+74.2
14	Erik Gustafsson LAK · D	LAK	D	579	292.1	-286.9	—	+74.2
15	Nikolas Matinpalo OTT · D	OTT	D	578	291.9	-286.1	+0.0	+74.4
16	Stephen Halliday OTT · C	OTT	C	577	292.8	-284.2	-0.1	+75.3
17	Joel Kiviranta DAL · L	DAL	L	576	292.6	-283.4	-0.1	+75.9
18	Nils Lundkvist DAL · D	DAL	D	575	292.3	-282.7	-0.1	+76.9
19	Owen Michaels EDM · R	EDM	R	573	291.9	-281.1	—	+79.2
20	Conor Geekie TBL · C	TBL	C	572	292.8	-279.2	—	+79.3
21	Cody Glass NJD · C	NJD	C	571	292.5	-278.5	-0.3	+79.4
22	Johnathan Kovacevic NJD · D	NJD	D	570	292.4	-277.6	-0.2	+79.5
23	Dmitri Simashev UTA · D	UTA	D	569	292.9	-276.1	+0.4	+80.6
24	Cole Koepke WPG · L	WPG	L	568	292.5	-275.5	-0.2	+81.5
25	Alexey Toropchenko STL · R	STL	R	566	292.3	-273.7	-0.1	+82.3
26	Drew Helleson ANA · D	ANA	D	565	292.3	-272.7	+0.0	+84.6
27	Troy Stecher TOR · D	TOR	D	564	292.3	-271.7	-0.3	+87.7
28	Declan Carlile PIT · D	PIT	D	563	292.2	-270.8	+0.1	+88.1
29	Jack St. Ivany WPG · D	WPG	D	562	292.4	-269.6	-0.4	+88.3
30	Trevor van Riemsdyk PIT · D	PIT	D	561	292.5	-268.5	-0.1	+88.3
31	Lars Eller FLA · C	FLA	C	560	292.5	-267.5	+0.0	+89.0
32	Jordan Greenway CHI · L	CHI	L	559	292.5	-266.5	+0.2	+90.5
33	Hendrix Lapierre PIT · C	PIT	C	558	292.6	-265.4	+0.1	+91.0
34	Zayne Parekh CGY · D	CGY	D	462	197	-265.0	+0.3	+125.4
35	Reid Schaefer NSH · L	NSH	L	557	292.6	-264.4	-0.1	+91.6
36	Erik Gudbranson CBJ · D	CBJ	D	554	292.6	-261.4	+0.0	+94.5
37	Daniil But UTA · L	UTA	L	553	292.6	-260.4	+0.5	+94.9
38	Shakir Mukhamadullin EDM · D	EDM	D	552	292.1	-259.9	-0.2	+95.5
39	Andrei Kuzmenko PIT · L	PIT	L	537	277.6	-259.4	-0.2	+99.5
40	Colin Blackwell DAL · C	DAL	C	551	292.5	-258.5	-0.2	+95.5

📈 Rising, and not yet repriced · going after pick 100

Projected to gain on last season in the categories this league counts, and still available late. A riser the room already knows about is priced as one.

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Age	ADP	G+A	Biggest mover	Move
1	Isaac Howard EDM · L	EDM	L	22	292.8	5 → 25	SOG 1.24 → 2.93	+1.6
2	Beckett Sennecke ANA · R	ANA	R	20	125	60 → 79	G 0.28 → 0.41	+0.9
3	Frank Vatrano ANA · R	ANA	R	32	275.3	9 → 28	G 0.1 → 0.21	+0.8
4	Ville Koivunen PIT · R	PIT	R	23	292.6	7 → 24	G 0.05 → 0.14	+0.7
5	Ivan Demidov MTL · R	MTL	R	20	127	62 → 75	A 0.52 → 0.65	+0.7
6	Jimmy Snuggerud STL · R	STL	R	22	163.7	51 → 68	G 0.3 → 0.37	+0.6
7	Victor Hedman TBL · D	TBL	D	35	114.1	17 → 46	G 0.03 → 0.12	+0.6
8	Braeden Bowman VGK · R	VGK	R	23	292.9	26 → 40	G 0.15 → 0.25	+0.5
9	Ben Kindel PIT · C	PIT	C	19	288.3	35 → 46	G 0.22 → 0.3	+0.5
10	Kent Johnson CBJ · C	CBJ	C	24	289.5	22 → 34	G 0.09 → 0.18	+0.5
11	Stefan Noesen NJD · R	NJD	R	33	292.5	7 → 20	G 0.08 → 0.16	+0.5
12	Emmitt Finnie DET · L	DET	L	21	291.3	30 → 40	G 0.16 → 0.24	+0.5
13	Matvei Michkov PHI · R	PHI	R	21	163.5	51 → 62	A 0.38 → 0.47	+0.5
14	Daniil But UTA · L	UTA	L	21	292.6	7 → 16	G 0.1 → 0.19	+0.5
15	Maxim Tsyplakov CGY · R	CGY	R	28	292.9	4 → 11	A 0.04 → 0.1	+0.5
16	Phillip Danault MTL · C	MTL	C	33	292.1	17 → 29	G 0.08 → 0.14	+0.4
17	Sean Monahan CBJ · C	CBJ	C	32	292.1	36 → 44	G 0.17 → 0.23	+0.4
18	Berkly Catton SEA · C	SEA	C	20	292.5	17 → 27	G 0.11 → 0.18	+0.4
19	Cole Sillinger CBJ · C	CBJ	C	23	293	33 → 41	G 0.1 → 0.19	+0.4
20	Ryan Greene CHI · C	CHI	C	22	292.6	29 → 37	G 0.15 → 0.21	+0.4
21	Jordan Kyrou WSH · R	WSH	R	28	137.3	46 → 59	G 0.25 → 0.33	+0.4
22	Marco Kasper DET · C	DET	C	22	290.2	19 → 29	G 0.11 → 0.19	+0.4
23	J.T. Miller NYR · C	NYR	C	33	112.3	53 → 68	G 0.25 → 0.31	+0.4
24	Mason McTavish STL · C	STL	C	23	205.5	41 → 52	G 0.23 → 0.3	+0.4
25	Michael Misa SJS · C	SJS	C	19	207.8	21 → 31	A 0.27 → 0.33	+0.4
26	Pierre-Luc Dubois WSH · C	WSH	C	28	249.2	19 → 51	G 0.17 → 0.24	+0.4
27	Cole Perfetti WPG · L	WPG	L	24	273.6	32 → 46	G 0.18 → 0.26	+0.4
28	Dmitri Simashev UTA · D	UTA	D	21	292.9	1 → 7	SOG 0.93 → 1.26	+0.4
29	William Eklund OTT · L	OTT	L	24	164.5	53 → 67	G 0.19 → 0.29	+0.4
30	Nazem Kadri COL · C	COL	C	36	144.6	50 → 57	G 0.21 → 0.32	+0.4
31	Oliver Moore CHI · C	CHI	C	21	292.7	19 → 27	G 0.1 → 0.14	+0.4
32	Jonathan Marchessault NSH · R	NSH	R	35	251.6	31 → 44	G 0.19 → 0.27	+0.4
33	Ryan Leonard WSH · R	WSH	R	21	206	45 → 53	G 0.27 → 0.31	+0.3
34	Luke Hughes NJD · D	NJD	D	23	163.5	35 → 49	A 0.43 → 0.51	+0.3
35	Igor Chernyshov SJS · L	SJS	L	20	210.5	19 → 37	A 0.36 → 0.43	+0.3
36	Zayne Parekh CGY · D	CGY	D	20	197	9 → 17	SOG 1.32 → 1.6	+0.3
37	Barrett Hayton UTA · C	UTA	C	26	293.5	25 → 37	G 0.15 → 0.24	+0.3
38	Valeri Nichushkin CBJ · R	CBJ	R	31	189.7	49 → 51	G 0.24 → 0.33	+0.3
39	Shane Wright SEA · C	SEA	C	22	292.8	27 → 36	G 0.16 → 0.21	+0.3
40	Martin Pospisil CGY · C	CGY	C	26	293	3 → 9	SOG 0.86 → 1.25	+0.3

📉 Slipping, and still being paid for · going inside pick 100

Projected to give back ground and still drafted early. This is a don't-pay-last-year's-price list, not a don't-draft list.

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Age	ADP	G+A	Biggest mover	Move
1	Darren Raddysh TOR · D	TOR	D	30	65.1	70 → 58	G 0.3 → 0.17	-1.0
2	Steven Stamkos NSH · C	NSH	C	36	95.5	66 → 54	G 0.51 → 0.38	-0.5
3	Mika Zibanejad NYR · C	NYR	C	33	66.9	78 → 72	G 0.42 → 0.34	-0.5
4	Jakob Chychrun WSH · D	WSH	D	28	48.1	60 → 51	G 0.33 → 0.24	-0.4
5	Brock Faber MIN · D	MIN	D	24	93.3	51 → 42	G 0.19 → 0.13	-0.3
6	Cole Caufield MTL · R	MTL	R	25	18.9	88 → 79	G 0.63 → 0.51	-0.3
7	Erik Karlsson PIT · D	PIT	D	36	81.3	66 → 59	G 0.2 → 0.16	-0.3
8	Alex Tuch WSH · R	WSH	R	30	71	66 → 62	G 0.42 → 0.35	-0.3
9	Pavel Dorofeyev NYR · R	NYR	R	25	96.9	64 → 56	G 0.45 → 0.39	-0.3
10	Martin Necas COL · R	COL	R	27	24.3	100 → 97	G 0.49 → 0.4	-0.2
11	Cutter Gauthier ANA · L	ANA	L	22	45.4	69 → 68	G 0.54 → 0.44	-0.2
12	Jason Robertson DAL · L	DAL	L	27	12	96 → 96	G 0.55 → 0.49	-0.2
13	Mark Scheifele WPG · C	WPG	C	33	41	103 → 91	G 0.44 → 0.39	-0.2
14	Tage Thompson BUF · C	BUF	C	28	27.8	81 → 76	G 0.49 → 0.45	-0.2
15	Charlie McAvoy BOS · D	BOS	D	28	95.5	61 → 57	A 0.72 → 0.64	-0.2
16	John Carlson TBL · D	TBL	D	36	69.4	60 → 54	G 0.2 → 0.16	-0.2
17	Alex DeBrincat DET · R	DET	R	28	43.2	85 → 82	SOG 3.5 → 3.25	-0.2
18	Adrian Kempe LAK · R	LAK	R	30	59.9	73 → 71	G 0.44 → 0.39	-0.2
19	Zach Hyman EDM · L	EDM	L	34	75.8	52 → 62	A 0.36 → 0.33	-0.2
20	Nikita Kucherov TBL · R	TBL	R	33	3.9	130 → 128	G 0.58 → 0.48	-0.2
21	Sidney Crosby PIT · C	PIT	C	39	53.3	74 → 71	G 0.43 → 0.37	-0.1
22	Drake Batherson OTT · R	OTT	R	28	92.3	71 → 69	G 0.42 → 0.35	-0.1
23	Mikhail Sergachev UTA · D	UTA	D	28	86.8	59 → 56	SOG 2.04 → 1.84	-0.1
24	Leon Draisaitl EDM · C	EDM	C	30	7.1	97 → 112	G 0.54 → 0.5	-0.1
25	Jackson LaCombe ANA · D	ANA	D	25	87.5	58 → 54	A 0.59 → 0.53	-0.1
26	Matt Boldy MIN · L	MIN	L	25	15.2	85 → 89	G 0.55 → 0.48	-0.1
27	William Nylander TOR · R	TOR	R	30	36	79 → 88	G 0.46 → 0.42	-0.1
28	Alex Ovechkin WSH · L	WSH	L	41	81.5	64 → 50	SOG 2.98 → 2.82	-0.1
29	Zach Werenski CBJ · D	CBJ	D	29	13.6	81 → 84	G 0.29 → 0.25	-0.1
30	Filip Forsberg NSH · L	NSH	L	32	35.3	75 → 72	G 0.49 → 0.4	-0.1
31	Evan Bouchard EDM · D	EDM	D	26	15.4	95 → 92	G 0.26 → 0.23	-0.1
32	Jake Guentzel TBL · C	TBL	C	32	31.2	88 → 87	PIM 0.75 → 0.6	-0.1
33	Adam Fox NYR · D	NYR	D	28	64.8	53 → 71	G 0.16 → 0.14	-0.0
34	Nathan MacKinnon COL · C	COL	C	31	1.7	127 → 130	G 0.66 → 0.57	-0.0
35	Moritz Seider DET · D	DET	D	25	40.5	60 → 59	HIT 1.56 → 1.92	-0.0
36	Dylan Larkin DET · C	DET	C	30	83	67 → 74	A 0.45 → 0.48	-0.0
37	Josh Morrissey WPG · D	WPG	D	31	79.5	55 → 58	G 0.18 → 0.14	-0.0

Trend and Move are the change in per-game value across every category this league counts, projected 2026-27 against actual 2025-26 (minimum 20 games played). G+A is shown because it is the number everyone carries in their head, but it is not what the ordering is on: a player can gain points and still slip in a league paying him for hits or blocks, and Biggest mover names the per-game category doing the most work either way. A player with no comparable last season shows no trend rather than a zero.