Reading the crease: where the 2026-27 starts are still in doubt
Published 5 September 2026, 9:16 pm ET
The creases genuinely in doubt
A crease is on this list when our projection separates the two men by 8 starts or fewer - close enough that a good October settles it, and enough of a workload that the loser is still a real backup rather than a third-stringer.
FLA: Jacob Markstrom and Akira Schmid
We split it 40 / 38, a gap of 2. That is 78 of FLA's 84 games; the rest go to men we do not carry a projection for. FLA play 14 back-to-backs, and the second night of one is where a backup's starts actually come from - so that is roughly the floor under whoever loses this.
Save percentage and shots faced per start are each goalie’s own and do not move: the sliders change how much he plays, not how well. Move one and the others absorb it in proportion. The 6 starts between these 78 and 84 games are not assigned to anyone here: they go to men we do not carry a projection for, which is what a third-stringer covering a week looks like in the data.
PIT: Arturs Silovs, Sergei Murashov and Joel Blomqvist
We split it 29 / 26 / 26, a gap of 3 at the top. That is 81 of PIT's 84 games; the rest go to men we do not carry a projection for. PIT play 15 back-to-backs, and the second night of one is where a backup's starts actually come from - so that is roughly the floor under whoever loses this.
Save percentage and shots faced per start are each goalie’s own and do not move: the sliders change how much he plays, not how well. Move one and the others absorb it in proportion. The 3 starts between these 81 and 84 games are not assigned to anyone here: they go to men we do not carry a projection for, which is what a third-stringer covering a week looks like in the data.
COL: Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood
We split it 41 / 37, a gap of 4. That is 78 of COL's 84 games; the rest go to men we do not carry a projection for. COL play 10 back-to-backs, and the second night of one is where a backup's starts actually come from - so that is roughly the floor under whoever loses this.
Save percentage and shots faced per start are each goalie’s own and do not move: the sliders change how much he plays, not how well. Move one and the others absorb it in proportion. The 6 starts between these 78 and 84 games are not assigned to anyone here: they go to men we do not carry a projection for, which is what a third-stringer covering a week looks like in the data.
SEA: Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer
We split it 41 / 37, a gap of 4. That is 78 of SEA's 84 games; the rest go to men we do not carry a projection for. SEA play 13 back-to-backs, and the second night of one is where a backup's starts actually come from - so that is roughly the floor under whoever loses this.
Save percentage and shots faced per start are each goalie’s own and do not move: the sliders change how much he plays, not how well. Move one and the others absorb it in proportion. The 6 starts between these 78 and 84 games are not assigned to anyone here: they go to men we do not carry a projection for, which is what a third-stringer covering a week looks like in the data.
MTL: Jakub Dobes, Samuel Montembeault and Jacob Fowler
We split it 34 / 29 / 17, a gap of 5 at the top. That is 80 of MTL's 84 games; the rest go to men we do not carry a projection for. MTL play 10 back-to-backs, and the second night of one is where a backup's starts actually come from - so that is roughly the floor under whoever loses this.
Save percentage and shots faced per start are each goalie’s own and do not move: the sliders change how much he plays, not how well. Move one and the others absorb it in proportion. The 4 starts between these 80 and 84 games are not assigned to anyone here: they go to men we do not carry a projection for, which is what a third-stringer covering a week looks like in the data.
CAR: Brandon Bussi and Pyotr Kochetkov
We split it 42 / 36, a gap of 6. That is 78 of CAR's 84 games; the rest go to men we do not carry a projection for. CAR play 12 back-to-backs, and the second night of one is where a backup's starts actually come from - so that is roughly the floor under whoever loses this.
Save percentage and shots faced per start are each goalie’s own and do not move: the sliders change how much he plays, not how well. Move one and the others absorb it in proportion. The 6 starts between these 78 and 84 games are not assigned to anyone here: they go to men we do not carry a projection for, which is what a third-stringer covering a week looks like in the data.
