The PP1 Swing: Every First-Unit Seat Still Up For Grabs
A promotion to the first power-play unit is worth 1.40 minutes a night. That is the whole prize: the gap between what a first unit plays (3.15 minutes a game) and what a second unit plays (1.75). It sounds like nothing. Paid out over a full season at the rate a good power-play forward actually scores, it is worth about ten points, which is more than most camp storylines are worth put together.
Ten points is also roughly the distance between a fantasy asset and a waiver-wire name. That is why the first unit is the depth-chart question in September that a drafter should care about most, and why the 53 contests below, across 30 clubs, are worth watching through the preseason rather than reading about in October.
Every contested first-unit seat
Ranked by what the seat itself is worth. The value gap is the distance between the two men on overall fantasy value: a small gap means the depth chart is close to arbitrary, and a large one means the incumbent should keep the job whatever the stake says.
Show the full table · 53 rows
| Club | Holds the seat | Challenger | Points | Value gap | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Teuvo Teravainen | Roman Kantserov | 10.4 | 3.77 | Challenger already grades higher |
| TOR | John Tavares | Gavin McKenna | 10.4 | 2.11 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| OTT | Jake Sanderson | Carter Yakemchuk | 10.3 | 6.35 | Incumbent should keep it |
| WSH | Jakob Chychrun | Cole Hutson | 10.3 | 4.2 | Incumbent should keep it |
| SJS | Dmitry Orlov | Keaton Verhoeff | 10.2 | 0.33 | Coin flip |
| NSH | Jonathan Marchessault | Brady Martin | 9.8 | 0.22 | Coin flip |
| BOS | JJ Peterka | Elias Lindholm | 9.6 | 1.97 | Challenger already grades higher |
| NSH | Roman Josi | Ryan Ufko | 8.6 | 7.43 | Incumbent should keep it |
| ANA | Jackson LaCombe | Tristan Luneau | 8.4 | 6.61 | Incumbent should keep it |
| VGK | Mark Stone | William Karlsson | 8.3 | 4.45 | Incumbent should keep it |
| MTL | Juraj Slafkovský | Ivan Demidov | 8.2 | 4.0 | Incumbent should keep it |
| DAL | Roope Hintz | Matt Duchene | 7.9 | 2.95 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| OTT | William Eklund | Fabian Zetterlund | 7.8 | 2.36 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| UTA | Logan Cooley | Vincent Trocheck | 7.8 | 2.9 | Challenger already grades higher |
| VGK | Shea Theodore | Rasmus Andersson | 7.8 | 3.32 | Challenger already grades higher |
| VAN | Filip Hronek | Zeev Buium | 7.4 | 4.0 | Incumbent should keep it |
| NJD | Luke Hughes | Dougie Hamilton | 7.3 | 0.66 | Coin flip |
| DET | Viktor Arvidsson | Emmitt Finnie | 7.1 | 1.0 | Challenger already grades higher |
| NYR | Alexis Lafrenière | Will Cuylle | 7.1 | 2.29 | Challenger already grades higher |
| PIT | Evgeni Malkin | Ben Kindel | 6.9 | 0.16 | Coin flip |
| SJS | Dmitry Orlov | Michael Misa | 6.8 | 2.64 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| WSH | Jordan Kyrou | Alex Tuch | 6.8 | 2.35 | Challenger already grades higher |
| CBJ | Sean Monahan | Dmitri Voronkov | 6.7 | 1.1 | Challenger already grades higher |
| CAR | Jackson Blake | Logan Stankoven | 6.5 | 0.94 | Coin flip |
| PIT | Erik Karlsson | Kris Letang | 6.5 | 2.87 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| SEA | Chandler Stephenson | Mackie Samoskevich | 6.4 | 1.66 | Challenger already grades higher |
| TBL | Victor Hedman | John Carlson | 6.4 | 0.65 | Coin flip |
| CBJ | Zach Werenski | Ivan Provorov | 6.2 | 7.59 | Incumbent should keep it |
| DAL | Miro Heiskanen | Thomas Harley | 6.2 | 1.22 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| SEA | Vince Dunn | Brandon Montour | 6.2 | 1.02 | Challenger already grades higher |
| DET | Moritz Seider | Justin Faulk | 6.0 | 8.03 | Incumbent should keep it |
| PHI | Jamie Drysdale | Cam York | 6.0 | 1.49 | Challenger already grades higher |
| TBL | Brayden Point | Anthony Cirelli | 6.0 | 2.61 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| CHI | Artyom Levshunov | Bowen Byram | 5.8 | 0.65 | Coin flip |
| MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek | Ryan Hartman | 5.8 | 2.79 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| STL | Logan Mailloux | Philip Broberg | 5.6 | 0.65 | Coin flip |
| STL | Pavel Buchnevich | Dylan Holloway | 5.6 | 2.92 | Challenger already grades higher |
| UTA | Mikhail Sergachev | MacKenzie Weegar | 5.5 | 1.53 | Challenger already grades higher |
| BOS | Charlie McAvoy | Hampus Lindholm | 5.4 | 5.85 | Incumbent should keep it |
| BUF | Jason Zucker | Zach Benson | 5.4 | 1.03 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| LAK | Mats Zuccarello | Alex Laferriere | 5.4 | 3.39 | Challenger already grades higher |
| PHI | Trevor Zegras | Owen Tippett | 5.4 | 2.9 | Challenger already grades higher |
| SJS | Alexander Wennberg | Mason Marchment | 5.4 | 0.48 | Coin flip |
| MIN | Brock Faber | Jared Spurgeon | 5.3 | 4.44 | Incumbent should keep it |
| NYR | Adam Fox | Sean Durzi | 5.3 | 5.74 | Incumbent should keep it |
| CGY | Matvei Gridin | Mikael Backlund | 5.1 | 0.16 | Coin flip |
| NYI | Matthew Schaefer | Tony DeAngelo | 5.1 | 9.33 | Incumbent should keep it |
| TOR | Darren Raddysh | Morgan Rielly | 5.0 | 3.34 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| VAN | Marco Rossi | Linus Karlsson | 5.0 | 3.79 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| FLA | Seth Jones | Aaron Ekblad | 4.4 | 2.83 | Live, incumbent favoured |
| CGY | Zayne Parekh | Simon Nemec | 4.3 | 0.94 | Challenger already grades higher |
| COL | Cale Makar | Brent Burns | 4.2 | 11.44 | Incumbent should keep it |
| LAK | Brandt Clarke | Drew Doughty | 3.2 | 5.61 | Incumbent should keep it |
Of those, 26 are genuinely open: either the challenger already grades higher than the man holding the seat, or the two are within a point of each other on value, which is another way of saying the depth chart is guessing.
The five biggest, seat by seat
Each unit is drawn at its measured stations rather than its listed positions: a man stands where his power-play shots actually came from last season. The swap is priced for both men, because one seat changes hands and it cannot pay both.
Chicago: Teuvo Teravainen holds it, Roman Kantserov wants it
10.4 points at stake. Challenger already grades higher, on a value gap of 3.77.
Roman Kantserov takes the bumper from Teuvo Teravainen, who drops to the second unit.
| After the swap | Now plays | G | A | P | PPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kantserov (up) | first unit | 36.0 +5.8 | 28.1 +4.6 | 64.1 +10.4 | 22.7 +10.4 |
| Teuvo Teravainen (down) | second unit | 11.2 -2.9 | 21.6 -5.7 | 32.8 -8.6 | 11.3 -8.6 |
Roman Kantserov has no measured power-play time, so he is priced at the league's median first-unit rate of 5.32 points per sixty rather than a number invented for him. The prize is the first-unit minute gap paid at each man's own measured power-play rate.
The card opens on the contest the model argues: Roman Kantserov taking the bumper from Teuvo Teravainen, worth 10.4 points to the man coming up and 8.6 to the man going down. Press any of the other four to price a different seat.
Toronto: John Tavares holds it, Gavin McKenna wants it
10.4 points at stake. Live, incumbent favoured, on a value gap of 2.11.
Gavin McKenna takes the net front from John Tavares, who drops to the second unit.
| After the swap | Now plays | G | A | P | PPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McKenna (up) | first unit | 19.7 +3.1 | 45.7 +7.3 | 65.4 +10.4 | 22.9 +10.4 |
| John Tavares (down) | second unit | 27.1 -3.9 | 32.2 -4.6 | 59.3 -8.5 | 11.8 -8.5 |
Gavin McKenna has no measured power-play time, so he is priced at the league's median first-unit rate of 5.32 points per sixty rather than a number invented for him. The prize is the first-unit minute gap paid at each man's own measured power-play rate.
The card opens on the contest the model argues: Gavin McKenna taking the net front from John Tavares, worth 10.4 points to the man coming up and 8.5 to the man going down. Press any of the other four to price a different seat.
Ottawa: Jake Sanderson holds it, Carter Yakemchuk wants it
10.3 points at stake. Incumbent should keep it, on a value gap of 6.35.
Carter Yakemchuk takes the point from Jake Sanderson, who drops to the second unit.
| After the swap | Now plays | G | A | P | PPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Yakemchuk (up) | first unit | 9.7 +2.4 | 32.3 +7.9 | 42.0 +10.3 | 17.6 +10.3 |
| Jake Sanderson (down) | second unit | 12.0 -2.0 | 41.3 -7.1 | 53.3 -9.1 | 18.9 -9.1 |
Carter Yakemchuk has no measured power-play time, so he is priced at the league's median first-unit rate of 5.32 points per sixty rather than a number invented for him. The prize is the first-unit minute gap paid at each man's own measured power-play rate.
The card opens on the contest the model argues: Carter Yakemchuk taking the point from Jake Sanderson, worth 10.3 points to the man coming up and 9.1 to the man going down. Press any of the other four to price a different seat.
Washington: Jakob Chychrun holds it, Cole Hutson wants it
10.3 points at stake. Incumbent should keep it, on a value gap of 4.2.
Cole Hutson takes the point from Jakob Chychrun, who drops to the second unit.
| After the swap | Now plays | G | A | P | PPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Hutson (up) | first unit | 13.1 +3.3 | 27.8 +7.0 | 40.9 +10.3 | 17.6 +10.3 |
| Jakob Chychrun (down) | second unit | 17.8 -3.0 | 27.3 -4.5 | 45.1 -7.5 | 8.9 -7.5 |
Cole Hutson has no measured power-play time, so he is priced at the league's median first-unit rate of 5.32 points per sixty rather than a number invented for him. The prize is the first-unit minute gap paid at each man's own measured power-play rate.
The card opens on the contest the model argues: Cole Hutson taking the point from Jakob Chychrun, worth 10.3 points to the man coming up and 7.5 to the man going down. Press any of the other four to price a different seat.
San Jose: Dmitry Orlov holds it, Keaton Verhoeff wants it
10.2 points at stake. Coin flip, on a value gap of 0.33.
Keaton Verhoeff takes the point from Dmitry Orlov, who drops to the second unit.
| After the swap | Now plays | G | A | P | PPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Verhoeff (up) | first unit | 11.6 +3.2 | 25.1 +7.0 | 36.7 +10.2 | 16.2 +10.2 |
| Dmitry Orlov (down) | second unit | 3.0 -1.1 | 18.5 -6.8 | 21.5 -7.9 | 2.6 -7.9 |
Keaton Verhoeff has no measured power-play time, so he is priced at the league's median first-unit rate of 5.32 points per sixty rather than a number invented for him. The prize is the first-unit minute gap paid at each man's own measured power-play rate.
The card opens on the contest the model argues: Keaton Verhoeff taking the point from Dmitry Orlov, worth 10.2 points to the man coming up and 7.9 to the man going down. Press any of the other four to price a different seat.
How the number is built
The prize is ice time multiplied by a rate. A man's power-play points per sixty minutes is measured from last season and then shrunk toward the league median, so a player with eleven minutes of power-play time cannot look like a star on a sample that small. Where a challenger has no measured power-play time at all, which is true of most of the rookies here, he is priced at the median first-unit rate and the article says so rather than inventing a number for him.
The split into goals and assists uses each player's own projected goal share, so a shooter's extra power-play points arrive mostly as goals and a distributor's mostly as assists. Stations come from the median location of every power-play shot a man took last season. Fewer than fifteen power-play shots and he is listed on the unit without a station, because a station built on four shots would be a guess wearing a label.
Nothing here reports a coach's decision. These are the seats our depth chart says are contested, and where the chart is wrong the contest is wrong with it. The chart is corrected by hand as lines are confirmed through camp, and this article is regenerated from it rather than rewritten.
Projections are for the 2026-27 season, which runs 84 games. Depth charts, unit assignments and camp battles are our own. Generated September 3, 2026.