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Pacific Division: the five biggest projected movers for 2026-27

Published 20 September 2026, 10:41 am ET

Pacific Division: the five biggest projected movers for 2026-27

Five players, ranked on projected points per game against last season: the same measure as our Rate Risers list, cut to one division. What is new is the second half of each number. The chart splits every rise into the stages of the projection that produced it, from last season's finishing luck to the age curve, and the stages add up to the change exactly, so the reason on the page is the model's own arithmetic rather than a story fitted to a number.

Everybody here played 40+ games last season and is projected at 0.45 points a game or better (0.35 for a defenceman).

#PlayerTeamPosAge2025-26 P/GP2026-27 P/GPGainBiggest driverYahoo ADP
1Beckett SenneckeANAR200.73 (60 in 82)0.97 (79 in 81)+0.24Age curve (+0.09)105
2Braeden BowmanVGKR230.48 (26 in 54)0.64 (40 in 63)+0.16Finishing luck (+0.06)n/a
3Macklin CelebriniSJSC201.40 (115 in 82)1.51 (119 in 79)+0.11Age curve (+0.14)5
4Elias PetterssonVANC270.69 (51 in 74)0.79 (62 in 78)+0.10League calibration (+0.06)138
5Shane WrightSEAC220.36 (27 in 74)0.47 (36 in 76)+0.10Older seasons (+0.04)n/a
Pacific: where each gain comes from
0Beckett SenneckeANA · RFinishing luck: +0.05Sample-size pull: −0.03Age curve: +0.09Young-player growth: +0.04Elite retention: +0.03League calibration: +0.06+0.24Braeden BowmanVGK · RFinishing luck: +0.06Sample-size pull: −0.01Age curve: +0.03Young-player growth: +0.05League calibration: +0.03+0.16Macklin CelebriniSJS · CFinishing luck: −0.08Older seasons: −0.10Sample-size pull: −0.04Age curve: +0.14Elite retention: +0.06League calibration: +0.13+0.11Elias PetterssonVAN · CFinishing luck: +0.03Older seasons: +0.05Age curve: −0.03Elite retention: +0.01League calibration: +0.06+0.10Shane WrightSEA · CFinishing luck: +0.01Older seasons: +0.04Age curve: +0.03League calibration: +0.01+0.10
Finishing luckOlder seasonsSample-size pullAge curveYoung-player growthElite retentionLeague calibration
Points per game. Each term is a stage of the projection; they add up to the change exactly. Press a name for the step-by-step walk.

What moves a projection

  • Finishing luck: Last season's goals regressed toward his expected goals.
  • Older seasons: His recency-weighted multi-season rate, against last season alone.
  • Minor-league record: Translated minor-league scoring blended into a thin NHL sample.
  • Sample-size pull: Shrinkage toward the position average, weaker the more games he has.
  • Age curve: The league's measured change in scoring from this age to the next.
  • Young-player growth: Extra growth measured for players 23 and under with fewer than 120 games.
  • Elite retention: The correction that stops top scorers being over-taxed.
  • League calibration: Rank-band calibration to the realised shape of league scoring.
  • Rate floor: The lowest rate the league has shown at his projected workload.
  • Operator floor: A floor we set by hand where the model reads a role too low, plus rounding.

Three kinds of term, and it is worth knowing which one a gain rests on. Finishing luck, older seasons and the sample-size pull are corrections to last season: they say last season was not quite the player. The age curve and young-player growth are a bet on the player, measured on how players of his age and experience have actually developed. Elite retention and calibration are league-level: they fix the shape of the whole projection rather than saying anything about one man. The operator floor is the only term that is our opinion, and it is labelled wherever it appears.

Role is not on the list, and that is a finding rather than an omission. The scoring rate is built from a player's own history, age and sample; the depth chart moves his games and his power-play points, not his points per game. A promotion to the first line changes how many games he is projected for, not this chart, which is why the linemate stories below are context for the number rather than the cause of it.

Player by player

1. Beckett Sennecke, ANA

Right wing, 20. 0.73 to 0.97 points a game (+0.24). 60 points in 82 games last season, 79 projected in 81. ADP on Sep 15: Yahoo 105, Fantrax 111, ESPN 150.

Beckett Sennecke finished 2025-26 with 0.73 points per game, a total that undersells what his underlying chances produced. The model expects him to climb to 0.97 for 2026-27, a rise of 0.24 driven mostly by age-curve progression of 0.09 and finishing luck of 0.05, the latter meaning goals that should have gone in last season are due to arrive. At 20 years old, he sits squarely in the young-player growth window, and that cohort typically adds more than age alone predicts. His sample remains relatively short, which the model accounts for with a modest pullback, yet everything else in his profile points toward a meaningful step forward.

Sennecke's path to 79 points runs through a first-line partnership with Cutter Gauthier and Leo Carlsson. He logged 409 even-strength minutes with Gauthier last season, establishing real chemistry on the wing, while his time with Carlsson at centre was limited to 137 minutes. The departure of John Carlson and Chris Kreider, plus Mason McTavish now with STL, clears out familiar personnel from the 2025-26 lineup. His power-play role looks secure on the first unit alongside Granlund, LaCombe, Gauthier and Carlsson, with the projection rising from 13 points to 19 there. If the Sennecke-Gauthier-Carlsson line holds, the offensive continuity with Gauthier should anchor his growth.

2. Braeden Bowman, VGK

Right wing, 23. 0.48 to 0.64 points a game (+0.16). 26 points in 54 games last season, 40 projected in 63.

Bowman's jump from 0.48 to a projected 0.64 points per game rests on three modest but real tailwinds. Finishing luck accounts for 0.06 of the rise, meaning he buried fewer of his chances last season than the underlying play deserved. Young-player growth contributes 0.05, a recognition that forwards his age with minimal experience still have runway left. At 23 and through just 54 career games, he sits squarely in the window where development compounds. The age curve adds another 0.03. None of these forces is dramatic, but together they suggest last season undersold what he can produce in a third-line role.

Chemistry with Tomas Hertl offers stability. The two shared 104 even-strength minutes last season and remain paired, with Hertl projected at 0.80 points per game. Victor Olofsson joins them on the wing after arriving from CGY, though he saw none of his even-strength ice with Bowman before. The bigger uncertainty sits on the power play. Bowman contests Hertl for a first-unit forward seat worth 5.2 projected points, a battle the model leaves unsettled. Departures of Pavel Dorofeyev, who shared 68 even-strength minutes with him, and Reilly Smith, who shared 65, open roster space but also strip him of familiar wingers. How Vegas reorganizes that even-strength depth shapes whether his ceiling climbs higher than 40 points.

3. Macklin Celebrini, SJS

Centre, 20. 1.40 to 1.51 points a game (+0.11). 115 points in 82 games last season, 119 projected in 79. ADP on Sep 15: Yahoo 5, Fantrax 4, ESPN 4.

Celebrini's step forward this season follows the natural arc for a 20-year-old centre entering his third pro year. His 1.40 points per game last season landed well, yet the model sees room for improvement driven by age curve effects typical of players making the leap from promising prospect to core contributor. The age curve adds 0.14 per game, and while finishing luck pulls back 0.08 after he converted chances at an unsustainable rate, elite retention adds 0.06 to guard against overestimating decline in top performers. The net projection of 1.51 points per game reflects genuine development rather than accident.

His primary partnership remains Will Smith on the right wing, a pairing that logged 860 even-strength minutes together last season and projects to stay intact. Igor Chernyshov figures as the left-wing complement after sharing 303 minutes with Celebrini, though that connection carries less history than the Smith pairing. The departure of John Klingberg, who played 426 minutes alongside him, opens ice time for Chernyshov to build chemistry. On the power play, Celebrini slots onto the first unit with Smith, Dmitry Orlov, Tyler Toffoli and Alexander Wennberg, with his power-play output projected to rise from 33 points to 37.

4. Elias Pettersson, VAN

Centre, 27. 0.69 to 0.79 points a game (+0.10). 51 points in 74 games last season, 62 projected in 78. ADP on Sep 15: Yahoo 138, Fantrax 128, ESPN 89.

Pettersson's step forward rests on two pillars beneath the surface. His finishing luck last year ran against him, he generated chances at a rate that typically converts to more goals, so regression toward his actual talent is baked in at 0.03 points per game of upside. More tellingly, his older seasons paint a picture of a player capable of better than the 0.69 he posted across 74 games in 2025-26, adding another 0.05 to the projection. The age curve will nibble at him at 27, but the model accounts for that decline already. League calibration rounds out the lift, leaving him pegged for 0.79 per game and 62 points in 78 games.

His linemate picture stabilizes around established chemistry. Jake DeBrusk logged 476 even-strength minutes alongside him last season and projects to 0.57 per game, a modest uptick from 0.52; Linus Karlsson slots in on the right wing with only 165 shared minutes but figures to find rhythm there. The loss of Evander Kane, who spent 443 minutes in the group and banked 31 points, means distribution of offensive load shifts among the three. Power-play positioning looks settled: Pettersson holds a first-unit seat with DeBrusk, Brock Boeser, Filip Hronek and Marco Rossi, a unit that yielded him 22 points last season and is projected for 24 this year.

5. Shane Wright, SEA

Centre, 22. 0.36 to 0.47 points a game (+0.10). 27 points in 74 games last season, 36 projected in 76.

Wright's jump from 0.36 to a projected 0.47 points per game rests on three pillars that lean hard on his track record. His older seasons ran ahead of last year's 27 points in 74 games, and that historical edge accounts for 0.04 of the gain. The age curve chips in another 0.03, reflecting the typical improvement arc for players at 22. A final 0.01 comes from finishing luck, the model's way of saying his shot conversion lagged what his chances usually produce. The gap between what he showed last season and what the model expects is real enough to warrant attention in deep formats.

Stability around Wright's line matters most. Berkly Catton, who logged 373 even-strength minutes with him last season and projects at 0.37 points per game, anchors the left side again. Ryan Winterton joins on the right at 0.33 after sharing 163 minutes together. The departures of Eeli Tolvanen and Jaden Schwartz freed up 123 and 147 minutes of partnership, respectively, though neither was a fixture. Wright's fourth-line assignment leaves limited upside in the evenstrength column, but a second-unit power-play seat alongside Kaapo Kakko and Brandon Montour offers some offset, with his power-play total projected to climb from 6 to 9.

Build your own list

Five is one cut of the division. Below is every Pacific skater with 10+ games last season: filter by position, club, age, games and projected rate, sort by rise or by drop, and press any player for his waterfall. Not yet arrived applies the breakout rule: under 65 points last season and never 0.85 a game in any of the last three seasons.

Every Pacific skater: build your own list
000.250.250.50.50.750.75111.251.251.51.5no change2025-26 P/GP2026-27 P/GPBeckett Sennecke (ANA, R): 0.73 to 0.97Frank Vatrano (ANA, R): 0.18 to 0.37Isaac Howard (EDM, L): 0.17 to 0.34Filip Chytil (VAN, C): 0.25 to 0.42Braeden Bowman (VGK, R): 0.48 to 0.64Michael Kesselring (SJS, D): 0.06 to 0.17Berkly Catton (SEA, C): 0.26 to 0.37Macklin Celebrini (SJS, C): 1.40 to 1.51Elias Pettersson (VAN, C): 0.69 to 0.79Shane Wright (SEA, C): 0.36 to 0.47Michael Misa (SJS, C): 0.47 to 0.57Mitch Marner (VGK, R): 0.99 to 1.08Tomas Hertl (VGK, C): 0.71 to 0.80Maxim Tsyplakov (CGY, R): 0.08 to 0.18Mackie Samoskevich (SEA, R): 0.42 to 0.51Matt Savoie (EDM, C): 0.45 to 0.53William Karlsson (VGK, C): 0.50 to 0.58Quinton Byfield (LAK, C): 0.62 to 0.70Shea Theodore (VGK, D): 0.56 to 0.63Matt Coronato (CGY, R): 0.56 to 0.64Igor Chernyshov (SJS, L): 0.68 to 0.75Connor Zary (CGY, C): 0.34 to 0.41Ryan Winterton (SEA, C): 0.26 to 0.33Connor McDavid (EDM, C): 1.68 to 1.75Jonathan Huberdeau (CGY, L): 0.50 to 0.56Alex Laferriere (LAK, R): 0.54 to 0.60Alex Turcotte (LAK, C): 0.23 to 0.28Sam Dickinson (SJS, D): 0.19 to 0.25Matvei Gridin (CGY, R): 0.54 to 0.59Jani Nyman (SEA, R): 0.25 to 0.30Trevor Moore (LAK, L): 0.46 to 0.52Martin Pospisil (CGY, C): 0.14 to 0.19Brendan Gallagher (VAN, R): 0.30 to 0.35Zeev Buium (VAN, D): 0.34 to 0.39Jake DeBrusk (VAN, L): 0.52 to 0.57Jack Eichel (VGK, C): 1.22 to 1.26Matty Beniers (SEA, C): 0.61 to 0.65Noah Hanifin (VGK, D): 0.39 to 0.43Yegor Sharangovich (CGY, C): 0.37 to 0.41Zayne Parekh (CGY, D): 0.24 to 0.28Kevin Fiala (LAK, L): 0.71 to 0.75Will Smith (SJS, R): 0.86 to 0.88Trent Frederic (EDM, C): 0.09 to 0.12Ryan Strome (CGY, C): 0.40 to 0.43Brandt Clarke (LAK, D): 0.49 to 0.51Aatu Räty (VAN, C): 0.21 to 0.24Jacob Melanson (SEA, R): 0.14 to 0.16Darnell Nurse (SJS, D): 0.29 to 0.31Liam Ohgren (VAN, L): 0.26 to 0.28Mathieu Joseph (EDM, R): 0.22 to 0.24Brock Boeser (VAN, R): 0.64 to 0.65Tom Willander (VAN, D): 0.30 to 0.31Vince Dunn (SEA, D): 0.54 to 0.55Tyler Toffoli (SJS, C): 0.62 to 0.63Pavel Mintyukov (ANA, D): 0.30 to 0.31Drew Doughty (LAK, D): 0.32 to 0.32Artemi Panarin (LAK, L): 1.08 to 1.08Colton Dach (EDM, C): 0.21 to 0.21Alex Killorn (ANA, L): 0.40 to 0.40Cody Ceci (LAK, D): 0.11 to 0.11Marco Rossi (VAN, C): 0.70 to 0.70Victor Olofsson (VGK, L): 0.40 to 0.39Adam Klapka (CGY, R): 0.23 to 0.22Jake Walman (EDM, D): 0.38 to 0.37Ryan Lindgren (SEA, D): 0.12 to 0.11Scott Laughton (LAK, C): 0.31 to 0.31Mattias Ekholm (EDM, D): 0.50 to 0.49Drew O'Connor (VAN, L): 0.35 to 0.34Brandon Montour (SEA, D): 0.50 to 0.49Joel Hanley (CGY, D): 0.10 to 0.09Mason Marchment (SJS, L): 0.66 to 0.65Paul Cotter (VAN, L): 0.19 to 0.18Filip Hronek (VAN, D): 0.60 to 0.58Linus Karlsson (VAN, R): 0.44 to 0.43Mikael Granlund (ANA, C): 0.71 to 0.69Tim Washe (ANA, C): 0.13 to 0.11Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM, C): 0.78 to 0.76Jason Dickinson (EDM, C): 0.27 to 0.25Jordan Eberle (SEA, R): 0.69 to 0.67Morgan Frost (CGY, C): 0.52 to 0.50Chandler Stephenson (SEA, C): 0.61 to 0.59Mikey Anderson (LAK, D): 0.25 to 0.22Collin Graf (SJS, R): 0.57 to 0.54Curtis Douglas (SEA, C): 0.09 to 0.07Zack Ostapchuk (SJS, C): 0.12 to 0.09Jake Middleton (CGY, D): 0.21 to 0.18Frederick Gaudreau (SEA, C): 0.35 to 0.32Nic Dowd (VGK, C): 0.28 to 0.25Adrian Kempe (LAK, R): 0.90 to 0.87Alec Regula (EDM, D): 0.10 to 0.07Joel Farabee (CGY, L): 0.46 to 0.43Jackson LaCombe (ANA, D): 0.71 to 0.67Barclay Goodrow (SJS, C): 0.15 to 0.11Brett Howden (VGK, C): 0.38 to 0.34Jared McCann (SEA, L): 0.77 to 0.73Zach Hyman (EDM, L): 0.90 to 0.86Elias Pettersson (VAN, D): 0.14 to 0.10Mikael Backlund (CGY, C): 0.52 to 0.48Taylor Ward (LAK, R): 0.19 to 0.15Leon Draisaitl (EDM, C): 1.49 to 1.45Evan Bouchard (EDM, D): 1.16 to 1.11Troy Terry (ANA, R): 0.93 to 0.89Jeff Malott (ANA, L): 0.16 to 0.11Ryan Poehling (ANA, C): 0.48 to 0.43Vasily Podkolzin (EDM, R): 0.45 to 0.41Erik Haula (LAK, C): 0.47 to 0.42Kaapo Kakko (SEA, R): 0.62 to 0.56Dmitry Orlov (SJS, D): 0.45 to 0.40Brian Dumoulin (LAK, D): 0.21 to 0.15Spencer Stastney (EDM, D): 0.15 to 0.10Cutter Gauthier (ANA, L): 0.91 to 0.85Ty Emberson (EDM, D): 0.17 to 0.11Ben Jones (CGY, C): 0.11 to 0.05Ivan Barbashev (VGK, L): 0.74 to 0.69Ian Moore (ANA, D): 0.18 to 0.12Adam Larsson (SEA, D): 0.30 to 0.25Luke Schenn (VAN, D): 0.14 to 0.08Mats Zuccarello (LAK, R): 0.92 to 0.86Kevin Bahl (CGY, D): 0.24 to 0.18Joel Armia (LAK, R): 0.37 to 0.31Joshua Mahura (SEA, D): 0.13 to 0.07Victor Mancini (VAN, D): 0.13 to 0.06Simon Nemec (CGY, D): 0.38 to 0.32Ty Dellandrea (SJS, C): 0.24 to 0.17Brayden McNabb (VGK, D): 0.19 to 0.13Marc Gatcomb (VGK, R): 0.14 to 0.08Hunter Brzustewicz (CGY, D): 0.21 to 0.14Cale Fleury (SEA, D): 0.13 to 0.06Yan Kuznetsov (CGY, D): 0.21 to 0.14Ryker Evans (SEA, D): 0.25 to 0.18Drew Helleson (ANA, D): 0.25 to 0.18Joel Edmundson (LAK, D): 0.28 to 0.21Kiefer Sherwood (SJS, L): 0.50 to 0.43Nikita Nesterenko (ANA, C): 0.31 to 0.23Jeremy Lauzon (VGK, D): 0.19 to 0.11Mattias Janmark (EDM, C): 0.19 to 0.11Jamie Oleksiak (VAN, D): 0.19 to 0.11Jonathan Lekkerimäki (VAN, R): 0.23 to 0.15Zach Whitecloud (CGY, D): 0.22 to 0.13Leo Carlsson (ANA, C): 1.12 to 1.03Rasmus Andersson (VGK, D): 0.58 to 0.49Mark Stone (VGK, R): 1.22 to 1.13Samuel Helenius (LAK, C): 0.17 to 0.08A.J. Greer (ANA, L): 0.41 to 0.31Connor Murphy (EDM, D): 0.21 to 0.12Shakir Mukhamadullin (EDM, D): 0.24 to 0.14Nick Jensen (ANA, D): 0.28 to 0.18Brayden Pachal (CGY, D): 0.18 to 0.08Ben Meyers (SEA, C): 0.29 to 0.18Parker Wotherspoon (VGK, D): 0.38 to 0.27Adam Gaudette (SJS, R): 0.38 to 0.27Max Sasson (VAN, C): 0.29 to 0.18Jacob Trouba (SJS, D): 0.43 to 0.32Arshdeep Bains (VAN, L): 0.18 to 0.07Alexander Wennberg (SJS, C): 0.69 to 0.57Alexander Holtz (VGK, R): 0.32 to 0.20Ryan Shea (EDM, D): 0.44 to 0.31Bobby McMann (SEA, L): 0.59 to 0.46Kasperi Kapanen (EDM, R): 0.41 to 0.27Corey Perry (LAK, R): 0.51 to 0.36Mike Benning (CGY, D): 0.33 to 0.17Max Jones (EDM, L): 0.24 to 0.06Tanner Laczynski (VGK, C): 0.50 to 0.23
66 of 163 skaters match; the top 15 are listed.
PlayerTeamPosAgeGP2025-262026-27GainYahoo ADP
Beckett SenneckeANAR20820.730.97+0.24105
Braeden BowmanVGKR23540.480.64+0.16–
Macklin CelebriniSJSC20821.401.51+0.115
Elias PetterssonVANC27740.690.79+0.10138
Shane WrightSEAC22740.360.47+0.10–
Michael MisaSJSC19450.470.57+0.10131
Mitch MarnerVGKR29810.991.08+0.1042
Tomas HertlVGKC32820.710.80+0.09145
Mackie SamoskevichSEAR23770.420.51+0.09–
Matt SavoieEDMC22820.450.53+0.08–
Quinton ByfieldLAKC24790.620.70+0.08136
Shea TheodoreVGKD31700.560.63+0.08101
Matt CoronatoCGYR23800.560.64+0.07–
Connor ZaryCGYC25740.340.41+0.07–
Connor McDavidEDMC29821.681.75+0.062
Points per game. Press a dot or a row for that player's term-by-term waterfall.

Where this is most likely to be wrong

Calibration and elite retention are league-level. They are measured on how the whole league's scoring is shaped and they move every good player a little; a rise that rests mostly on them is the projection correcting its own shape, not a claim about the player.

The age and experience terms are averages. They are what players of his age and games have done, measured across a decade, and the one in front of you can be the exception in either direction.

Linemates are our depth chart, not a coach's. The lines in each story are our projection of camp; shared minutes are measured from last season's shift records. A line that changes in October changes the story, not the number.

Projections are for the 2026-27 season, 84 games. Last-season figures are regular season only. The terms are recorded from the projection's own run and sum to each change exactly; ages are on 1 October. Player sections are written from a fact sheet of our own data and checked against it before they run.

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