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Metropolitan Division: the five biggest projected movers for 2026-27

Published 16 September 2026, 8:33 am ET

Five players, ranked on projected points per game against last season: the same measure as our Rate Risers list, cut to one division. What is new is the second half of each number. The chart splits every rise into the stages of the projection that produced it, from last season's finishing luck to the age curve, and the stages add up to the change exactly, so the reason on the page is the model's own arithmetic rather than a story fitted to a number.

Everybody here played 40+ games last season and is projected at 0.45 points a game or better (0.35 for a defenceman).

#PlayerTeamPosAge2025-26 P/GP2026-27 P/GPGainBiggest driverYahoo ADP
1Kent JohnsonCBJC230.29 (22 in 76)0.46 (32 in 70)+0.17Older seasons (+0.10)n/a
2Sean MonahanCBJC310.46 (36 in 78)0.61 (45 in 73)+0.15Older seasons (+0.12)n/a
3Ben KindelPITC190.45 (35 in 77)0.60 (46 in 77)+0.15Age curve (+0.07)n/a
4Matvei MichkovPHIR210.63 (51 in 81)0.77 (62 in 80)+0.14League calibration (+0.06)139
5J.T. MillerNYRC330.78 (53 in 68)0.91 (69 in 76)+0.13Older seasons (+0.07)116
Metropolitan: where each gain comes from
0Kent JohnsonCBJ · CFinishing luck: +0.05Older seasons: +0.10Age curve: +0.01League calibration: +0.01+0.17Sean MonahanCBJ · CFinishing luck: +0.04Older seasons: +0.12Age curve: −0.04League calibration: +0.03+0.15Ben KindelPIT · CFinishing luck: +0.02Age curve: +0.07Young-player growth: +0.03League calibration: +0.03+0.15Matvei MichkovPHI · RFinishing luck: −0.01Older seasons: +0.04Sample-size pull: −0.01Age curve: +0.06League calibration: +0.06+0.14J.T. MillerNYR · CFinishing luck: +0.04Older seasons: +0.07Age curve: −0.07Elite retention: +0.02League calibration: +0.07+0.13
Finishing luckOlder seasonsSample-size pullAge curveYoung-player growthElite retentionLeague calibration
Points per game. Each term is a stage of the projection; they add up to the change exactly. Press a name for the step-by-step walk.

What moves a projection

  • Finishing luck: Last season's goals regressed toward his expected goals.
  • Older seasons: His recency-weighted multi-season rate, against last season alone.
  • Minor-league record: Translated minor-league scoring blended into a thin NHL sample.
  • Sample-size pull: Shrinkage toward the position average, weaker the more games he has.
  • Age curve: The league's measured change in scoring from this age to the next.
  • Young-player growth: Extra growth measured for players 23 and under with fewer than 120 games.
  • Elite retention: The correction that stops top scorers being over-taxed.
  • League calibration: Rank-band calibration to the realised shape of league scoring.
  • Rate floor: The lowest rate the league has shown at his projected workload.
  • Operator floor: A floor we set by hand where the model reads a role too low, plus rounding.

Three kinds of term, and it is worth knowing which one a gain rests on. Finishing luck, older seasons and the sample-size pull are corrections to last season: they say last season was not quite the player. The age curve and young-player growth are a bet on the player, measured on how players of his age and experience have actually developed. Elite retention and calibration are league-level: they fix the shape of the whole projection rather than saying anything about one man. The operator floor is the only term that is our opinion, and it is labelled wherever it appears.

Role is not on the list, and that is a finding rather than an omission. The scoring rate is built from a player's own history, age and sample; the depth chart moves his games and his power-play points, not his points per game. A promotion to the first line changes how many games he is projected for, not this chart, which is why the linemate stories below are context for the number rather than the cause of it.

Player by player

1. Kent Johnson, CBJ

Centre, 23. 0.29 to 0.46 points a game (+0.17). 22 points in 76 games last season, 32 projected in 70.

Kent Johnson's projection hinges on looking past a forgettable 0.29 points per game last season. His older seasons ran 0.10 points per game better, the model's largest driver of his 0.17-point jump. That historical bar matters more than age, at 23, the typical improvement from the age curve contributes just 0.01. Last season he scored fewer goals than his chances usually produce, so the model expects more to go in, worth another 0.05 per game. Together, these factors push him toward 0.46 points per game and 32 points in 70 games.

The lineup shuffle creates a mixed picture for his fourth-line role. He loses Boone Jenner, who shared 275 even-strength minutes with him and now plays for WSH, but keeps Miles Wood on his wing after 90 shared minutes last season. Ryan Lomberg arrives from CGY as his right wing and has no established chemistry with Johnson. On the second power-play unit, Johnson sits with Ivan Provorov, Valeri Nichushkin, Conor Garland and Dmitri Voronkov. If this group holds, he stands to gain on special teams, the projection calls for 6 power-play points against last season's 2, even as his even-strength minutes and role remain tight.

2. Sean Monahan, CBJ

Centre, 31. 0.46 to 0.61 points a game (+0.15). 36 points in 78 games last season, 45 projected in 73. ADP on Sep 16: Fantrax 291.

Monahan's projection hinges on older seasons outweighing what we saw in 2025-26. He posted 36 points in 78 games last season, a 0.46 per-game rate that sits well below what his career resume and actual scoring chances suggested he should have produced. The model leans 0.12 on those earlier years as the better read on his talent, then adds another 0.04 for finishing luck, goals that didn't fall last season but figure to land more often going forward. Age curve works against him by 0.04, the typical decline for a 31-year-old, leaving a net rise of 0.15 and a projected 0.61 per game across 73 games for 2026-27.

Second-line consistency matters more than it looks. Conor Garland and Cole Sillinger will flank him with shared even-strength minutes suggesting real chemistry at 165 and 128 minutes respectively. Boone Jenner's departure to WSH removes 263 minutes of familiar ice time, a notable loss, though the two wings stay put. Power play offers upside if he holds his first-unit spot, but Valeri Nichushkin is contesting that seat with 4.1 projected points at stake. Monahan accumulated 10 power-play points last season and sits projected for 12, so the outcome of that fight matters to his ceiling.

3. Ben Kindel, PIT

Centre, 19. 0.45 to 0.60 points a game (+0.15). 35 points in 77 games last season, 46 projected in 77. ADP on Sep 16: Fantrax 284.

Ben Kindel's projection leaps from 0.45 to 0.60 points per game, a jump driven mostly by age curve growth of 0.07 as he matures into his early twenties. Young-player growth adds another 0.03, reflecting how players 23 and under with fewer than 120 NHL games have historically stepped forward faster than age alone predicts. Last season he scored fewer goals than his chances usually produce, so the model expects more to go in, worth 0.02 additional points per game. The pathway is clear: Kindel showed real production at 0.45 last season across 77 games, and the fundamentals of his development point upward.

Playing second-line centre alongside Evgeni Malkin and Egor Chinakhov gives Kindel established chemistry to lean on, having shared 59 and 71 even-strength minutes respectively with both wings last season. Malkin's decline from 1.09 to a projected 0.93 points per game creates neither a burden nor a gift, just continuity. The power-play picture is murkier. Kindel remains on the second unit at 1:50 per night, though he is pushing Rickard Rakell for a top-unit forward slot with 6.9 projected points at stake. Pittsburgh lost significant depth with Anthony Mantha's departure to NJD and Ryan Shea's move to EDM, both of whom had logged heavy minutes alongside Kindel. If he wins the power-play contest or consolidates the line chemistry, the 46-point projection could move higher.

4. Matvei Michkov, PHI

Right wing, 21. 0.63 to 0.77 points a game (+0.14). 51 points in 81 games last season, 62 projected in 80. ADP on Sep 16: Yahoo 139, Fantrax 148, ESPN 209.

Where it comes from: league calibration +0.06, age curve +0.06 and older seasons +0.04. Pulling the other way: finishing luck -0.01 and sample-size pull -0.01.

The depth chart has him second-line and the first power-play unit. His projected linemates are Owen Tippett and Noah Cates.

5. J.T. Miller, NYR

Centre, 33. 0.78 to 0.91 points a game (+0.13). 53 points in 68 games last season, 69 projected in 76. ADP on Sep 16: Yahoo 116, Fantrax 80, ESPN 130.

Miller's rebound in 2026-27 rests on a correction from last season rather than any dramatic leap forward. His point-per-game projection rises from 0.78 to 0.91, driven mainly by two forces: his earlier seasons were better than 2025-26 suggests (older seasons model term +0.07), and league calibration adds another 0.07 to align his tier with how scoring actually distributes across the NHL. The age curve works against him at 33 years old, dragging down 0.07, but finishing luck saves the calculation. Last season he converted chances at a lower rate than expected, and the model anticipates regression toward typical shooting results, a gain of 0.04 points per game. Over 221 games across the last three seasons, Miller has proven durable enough to carry that optimism into his second line role.

Continuity matters here. Will Cuylle and Gabe Perreault return as his wings, having logged 209 and 226 even-strength minutes with him respectively last season. Perreault's own projection ticks upward from 0.55 to 0.60 points per game, suggesting the chemistry could produce gains on both sides. The departure of Vincent Trocheck, who had clocked 268 minutes alongside Miller, leaves some disruption, though Mika Zibanejad remains on the first line rather than pushing into his circle. Miller holds a locked seat on the first power-play unit with Zibanejad and Adam Fox, where his ice time of 3:08 per night generated 19 power-play points last season, with 24 projected for 2026-27.

Build your own list

Five is one cut of the division. Below is every Metropolitan skater with 10+ games last season: filter by position, club, age, games and projected rate, sort by rise or by drop, and press any player for his waterfall. Not yet arrived applies the breakout rule: under 65 points last season and never 0.85 a game in any of the last three seasons.

Every Metropolitan skater: build your own list
000.250.250.50.50.750.75111.251.25no change2025-26 P/GP2026-27 P/GPVille Koivunen (PIT, R): 0.18 to 0.40Kent Johnson (CBJ, C): 0.29 to 0.46Sean Monahan (CBJ, C): 0.46 to 0.61Ben Kindel (PIT, C): 0.45 to 0.60Matvei Michkov (PHI, R): 0.63 to 0.77Stefan Noesen (NJD, R): 0.18 to 0.32J.T. Miller (NYR, C): 0.78 to 0.91Luke Hughes (NJD, D): 0.51 to 0.64Alexander Romanov (NYI, D): 0.07 to 0.19Matthew Schaefer (NYI, D): 0.72 to 0.84Jack Hughes (NJD, C): 1.26 to 1.38Cole Sillinger (CBJ, C): 0.41 to 0.52Jesper Bratt (NJD, L): 0.87 to 0.98Adam Fantilli (CBJ, C): 0.72 to 0.83Jordan Kyrou (WSH, R): 0.64 to 0.74Nico Hischier (NJD, C): 0.80 to 0.90Timo Meier (NJD, R): 0.57 to 0.67Ryan Leonard (WSH, R): 0.60 to 0.69Luca Del Bel Belluz (CBJ, C): 0.07 to 0.16Jesperi Kotkaniemi (CAR, C): 0.21 to 0.30Oliver Bjorkstrand (NYR, R): 0.40 to 0.48Pierre-Luc Dubois (WSH, C): 0.66 to 0.74Dylan Strome (WSH, C): 0.72 to 0.80Logan Stankoven (CAR, C): 0.54 to 0.62Noah Laba (NYR, C): 0.32 to 0.40Conor Garland (CBJ, R): 0.46 to 0.54Valeri Nichushkin (CBJ, R): 0.68 to 0.75Jackson Blake (CAR, R): 0.65 to 0.72Mathew Barzal (NYI, C): 0.89 to 0.95David Jiricek (PHI, D): 0.00 to 0.06Denver Barkey (PHI, C): 0.40 to 0.46Will Cuylle (NYR, L): 0.46 to 0.52Seth Jarvis (CAR, R): 0.93 to 0.99Ryan Graves (PIT, D): 0.05 to 0.10Calum Ritchie (NYI, C): 0.46 to 0.52Jaccob Slavin (CAR, D): 0.21 to 0.26Rutger McGroarty (PIT, R): 0.25 to 0.30Dawson Mercer (NJD, C): 0.51 to 0.56Lenni Hameenaho (NJD, R): 0.24 to 0.29Gabe Perreault (NYR, R): 0.55 to 0.60Boone Jenner (WSH, C): 0.57 to 0.60Sebastian Aho (CAR, C): 1.01 to 1.05Luke Evangelista (NJD, R): 0.69 to 0.73Hendrix Lapierre (PIT, C): 0.22 to 0.25Justin Sourdif (WSH, C): 0.45 to 0.48Sean Couturier (PHI, C): 0.46 to 0.49Ondrej Palat (NYI, L): 0.19 to 0.22Simon Benoit (PHI, D): 0.08 to 0.11Joe Veleno (NYR, C): 0.08 to 0.11Brayden Schenn (NYI, C): 0.49 to 0.51Dougie Hamilton (NJD, D): 0.51 to 0.53Nick Bjugstad (NJD, C): 0.15 to 0.17Dylan McIlrath (WSH, D): 0.00 to 0.02Jack Studnicka (PHI, C): 0.00 to 0.02Erik Gudbranson (CBJ, D): 0.08 to 0.10Marcus Pettersson (NYR, D): 0.22 to 0.24Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ, L): 0.51 to 0.52Travis Konecny (PHI, R): 0.88 to 0.90Alexis Lafrenière (NYR, L): 0.70 to 0.71Aliaksei Protas (WSH, L): 0.68 to 0.70Andrei Svechnikov (CAR, R): 0.89 to 0.90Danton Heinen (CBJ, L): 0.26 to 0.27Eeli Tolvanen (NYR, R): 0.46 to 0.47Kirill Marchenko (CBJ, R): 0.88 to 0.89Declan Carlile (PIT, D): 0.07 to 0.07Andrei Kuzmenko (PIT, L): 0.48 to 0.48Jordan Martinook (CAR, L): 0.38 to 0.38Matt Roy (WSH, D): 0.24 to 0.24Simon Holmstrom (NYI, R): 0.52 to 0.52Anthony Beauvillier (WSH, R): 0.34 to 0.34Rickard Rakell (PIT, R): 0.80 to 0.80Owen Tippett (PHI, R): 0.63 to 0.63Arseny Gritsyuk (NJD, R): 0.47 to 0.46Adam Pelech (NYI, D): 0.20 to 0.19Braden Schneider (NYR, D): 0.22 to 0.21Elmer Soderblom (PIT, L): 0.22 to 0.21Cam York (PHI, D): 0.35 to 0.34Evan Rodrigues (NJD, C): 0.45 to 0.44Jake Christiansen (CBJ, D): 0.07 to 0.07Tommy Novak (PIT, C): 0.51 to 0.50Alex Ovechkin (WSH, L): 0.78 to 0.77Scott Morrow (NYR, D): 0.21 to 0.19Tony DeAngelo (NYI, D): 0.46 to 0.45Nick Seeler (PHI, D): 0.13 to 0.11Jesper Boqvist (NJD, C): 0.18 to 0.16Taylor Raddysh (NYR, R): 0.28 to 0.26Nikolaj Ehlers (CAR, L): 0.87 to 0.85Vincent Desharnais (WSH, D): 0.13 to 0.11Adam Fox (NYR, D): 0.96 to 0.94Emil Heineman (NYI, L): 0.38 to 0.35Mitchell Chaffee (NYI, R): 0.09 to 0.07Alexander Nikishin (CAR, D): 0.41 to 0.38Sean Durzi (NYR, D): 0.45 to 0.42Kyle MacLean (NYI, C): 0.12 to 0.09Samuel Girard (PIT, D): 0.32 to 0.29Timothy Liljegren (WSH, D): 0.23 to 0.21Ivan Provorov (CBJ, D): 0.38 to 0.35Nikita Grebenkin (PHI, R): 0.25 to 0.23Matias Maccelli (NYI, L): 0.55 to 0.52William Carrier (CAR, L): 0.26 to 0.23Matthew Kessel (NYI, D): 0.10 to 0.07Nolan Foote (PHI, L): 0.08 to 0.05Noah Cates (PHI, C): 0.57 to 0.54Jean-Gabriel Pageau (NYI, C): 0.47 to 0.44Eric Robinson (CAR, L): 0.27 to 0.23Urho Vaakanainen (NYR, D): 0.18 to 0.14Bo Horvat (NYI, C): 0.84 to 0.80Zach Werenski (CBJ, D): 1.08 to 1.04Kris Letang (PIT, D): 0.46 to 0.42Trevor Zegras (PHI, C): 0.83 to 0.79Brett Pesce (NJD, D): 0.19 to 0.15Dante Fabbro (CBJ, D): 0.15 to 0.11Vincent Iorio (NYR, D): 0.11 to 0.07Matt Rempe (NYR, C): 0.04 to 0.00Bryan Rust (PIT, R): 0.90 to 0.86Nicolas Deslauriers (CAR, L): 0.06 to 0.03Sidney Crosby (PIT, C): 1.09 to 1.05Juuso Parssinen (NYR, C): 0.15 to 0.11Nick Robertson (PIT, L): 0.41 to 0.37Martin Fehérváry (WSH, D): 0.33 to 0.29Taylor Hall (CAR, L): 0.60 to 0.56Travis Sanheim (PHI, D): 0.46 to 0.41Connor Dewar (PIT, C): 0.38 to 0.34Jalen Chatfield (CAR, D): 0.24 to 0.19Rasmus Ristolainen (PHI, D): 0.32 to 0.27Ryan Pulock (NYI, D): 0.36 to 0.31Egor Chinakhov (PIT, R): 0.58 to 0.53Dennis Cholowski (NJD, D): 0.12 to 0.06Kaedan Korczak (PIT, D): 0.21 to 0.15Christian Dvorak (PHI, C): 0.64 to 0.58Jamie Drysdale (PHI, D): 0.41 to 0.35Jordan Staal (CAR, C): 0.48 to 0.42Brennan Othmann (NYR, L): 0.16 to 0.10Matthew Robertson (NYR, D): 0.25 to 0.19Alex Tuch (WSH, R): 0.84 to 0.78Denton Mateychuk (CBJ, D): 0.41 to 0.35K'Andre Miller (CAR, D): 0.51 to 0.45Mark Jankowski (CAR, C): 0.31 to 0.25Damon Severson (CBJ, D): 0.45 to 0.39Blake Lizotte (PIT, C): 0.35 to 0.28Ethen Frank (WSH, R): 0.39 to 0.32Ryan Lomberg (CBJ, L): 0.16 to 0.09Miles Wood (CBJ, L): 0.26 to 0.19Casey Cizikas (NYI, C): 0.22 to 0.15Joel Nystrom (CAR, D): 0.26 to 0.19Brenden Dillon (NJD, D): 0.18 to 0.11Kyle Palmieri (NYI, C): 0.72 to 0.65Cody Glass (NJD, C): 0.37 to 0.30Mike Reilly (CAR, D): 0.21 to 0.14Tom Wilson (WSH, R): 0.86 to 0.79Trevor van Riemsdyk (PIT, D): 0.21 to 0.13Sean Walker (CAR, D): 0.38 to 0.31Johnathan Kovacevic (NJD, D): 0.24 to 0.16Isac Lundeström (CBJ, C): 0.18 to 0.10Mika Zibanejad (NYR, C): 0.96 to 0.89Tye Kartye (NYR, L): 0.34 to 0.27Ivan Miroshnichenko (WSH, L): 0.23 to 0.15Jonas Siegenthaler (NJD, D): 0.20 to 0.11Scott Mayfield (NYI, D): 0.19 to 0.11Jonny Brodzinski (NYR, C): 0.29 to 0.21Erik Karlsson (PIT, D): 0.88 to 0.79Pavel Dorofeyev (NYR, R): 0.78 to 0.69Connor Brown (NJD, R): 0.57 to 0.48Tyson Foerster (PHI, R): 0.59 to 0.49Anthony Duclair (NYI, L): 0.44 to 0.34Vladislav Gavrikov (NYR, D): 0.43 to 0.33Mathieu Olivier (CBJ, R): 0.43 to 0.33Jaroslav Chmelar (NYR, R): 0.21 to 0.12Charlie Coyle (CBJ, C): 0.71 to 0.61Zachary Aston-Reese (PHI, L): 0.19 to 0.08Jakob Chychrun (WSH, D): 0.75 to 0.65Justin Brazeau (PIT, R): 0.53 to 0.42Colton White (CBJ, D): 0.17 to 0.06Pierre-Olivier Joseph (CAR, D): 0.19 to 0.07Shayne Gostisbehere (CAR, D): 0.91 to 0.77Declan Chisholm (NJD, D): 0.27 to 0.12Carl Grundstrom (PHI, R): 0.28 to 0.13Noel Acciari (PHI, C): 0.37 to 0.22Rasmus Sandin (WSH, D): 0.40 to 0.24Evgeni Malkin (PIT, C): 1.09 to 0.93Vladislav Kolyachonok (NJD, D): 0.23 to 0.07Anthony Mantha (NJD, R): 0.79 to 0.63
81 of 182 skaters match; the top 15 are listed.
PlayerTeamPosAgeGP2025-262026-27GainYahoo ADP
Kent JohnsonCBJC23760.290.46+0.17–
Sean MonahanCBJC31780.460.61+0.15–
Ben KindelPITC19770.450.60+0.15–
Matvei MichkovPHIR21810.630.77+0.14139
J.T. MillerNYRC33680.780.91+0.13116
Luke HughesNJDD23680.510.64+0.13134
Matthew SchaeferNYID19820.720.84+0.1232
Jack HughesNJDC25611.261.38+0.1219
Cole SillingerCBJC23810.410.52+0.11–
Jesper BrattNJDL28820.870.98+0.1177
Adam FantilliCBJC21820.720.83+0.1199
Jordan KyrouWSHR28720.640.74+0.10140
Nico HischierNJDC27820.800.90+0.10129
Timo MeierNJDR29770.570.67+0.10104
Ryan LeonardWSHR21750.600.69+0.09134
Points per game. Press a dot or a row for that player's term-by-term waterfall.

Where this is most likely to be wrong

Calibration and elite retention are league-level. They are measured on how the whole league's scoring is shaped and they move every good player a little; a rise that rests mostly on them is the projection correcting its own shape, not a claim about the player.

The age and experience terms are averages. They are what players of his age and games have done, measured across a decade, and the one in front of you can be the exception in either direction.

Linemates are our depth chart, not a coach's. The lines in each story are our projection of camp; shared minutes are measured from last season's shift records. A line that changes in October changes the story, not the number.

Projections are for the 2026-27 season, 84 games. Last-season figures are regular season only. The terms are recorded from the projection's own run and sum to each change exactly; ages are on 1 October. Player sections are written from a fact sheet of our own data and checked against it before they run.

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