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Central Division: the five biggest projected movers for 2026-27

Published 18 September 2026, 9:23 am ET

Five players, ranked on projected points per game against last season: the same measure as our Rate Risers list, cut to one division. What is new is the second half of each number. The chart splits every rise into the stages of the projection that produced it, from last season's finishing luck to the age curve, and the stages add up to the change exactly, so the reason on the page is the model's own arithmetic rather than a story fitted to a number.

Everybody here played 40+ games last season and is projected at 0.45 points a game or better (0.35 for a defenceman).

#PlayerTeamPosAge2025-26 P/GP2026-27 P/GPGainBiggest driverYahoo ADP
1Jimmy SnuggerudSTLR220.73 (51 in 70)0.90 (67 in 75)+0.17League calibration (+0.07)135
2Quinn HughesMIND261.03 (76 in 74)1.17 (92 in 78)+0.15League calibration (+0.09)12
3Cole PerfettiWPGL240.47 (32 in 68)0.60 (44 in 73)+0.13Finishing luck (+0.06)n/a
4Mason McTavishSTLC230.55 (41 in 75)0.67 (51 in 76)+0.13League calibration (+0.04)132
5Connor BedardCHIC211.09 (75 in 69)1.21 (81 in 67)+0.12Age curve (+0.10)65
Central: where each gain comes from
0Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RFinishing luck: +0.01Sample-size pull: −0.02Age curve: +0.06Young-player growth: +0.04Elite retention: +0.02League calibration: +0.07+0.17Quinn HughesMIN · DFinishing luck: +0.05Sample-size pull: −0.01Age curve: −0.03Elite retention: +0.05League calibration: +0.09+0.15Cole PerfettiWPG · LFinishing luck: +0.06Older seasons: +0.03Age curve: +0.01League calibration: +0.03+0.13Mason McTavishSTL · CFinishing luck: +0.03Older seasons: +0.04Age curve: +0.03League calibration: +0.04+0.13Connor BedardCHI · CFinishing luck: −0.01Older seasons: −0.09Sample-size pull: −0.02Age curve: +0.10Elite retention: +0.05League calibration: +0.08+0.12
Finishing luckOlder seasonsSample-size pullAge curveYoung-player growthElite retentionLeague calibration
Points per game. Each term is a stage of the projection; they add up to the change exactly. Press a name for the step-by-step walk.

What moves a projection

  • Finishing luck: Last season's goals regressed toward his expected goals.
  • Older seasons: His recency-weighted multi-season rate, against last season alone.
  • Minor-league record: Translated minor-league scoring blended into a thin NHL sample.
  • Sample-size pull: Shrinkage toward the position average, weaker the more games he has.
  • Age curve: The league's measured change in scoring from this age to the next.
  • Young-player growth: Extra growth measured for players 23 and under with fewer than 120 games.
  • Elite retention: The correction that stops top scorers being over-taxed.
  • League calibration: Rank-band calibration to the realised shape of league scoring.
  • Rate floor: The lowest rate the league has shown at his projected workload.
  • Operator floor: A floor we set by hand where the model reads a role too low, plus rounding.

Three kinds of term, and it is worth knowing which one a gain rests on. Finishing luck, older seasons and the sample-size pull are corrections to last season: they say last season was not quite the player. The age curve and young-player growth are a bet on the player, measured on how players of his age and experience have actually developed. Elite retention and calibration are league-level: they fix the shape of the whole projection rather than saying anything about one man. The operator floor is the only term that is our opinion, and it is labelled wherever it appears.

Role is not on the list, and that is a finding rather than an omission. The scoring rate is built from a player's own history, age and sample; the depth chart moves his games and his power-play points, not his points per game. A promotion to the first line changes how many games he is projected for, not this chart, which is why the linemate stories below are context for the number rather than the cause of it.

Player by player

1. Jimmy Snuggerud, STL

Right wing, 22. 0.73 to 0.90 points a game (+0.17). 51 points in 70 games last season, 67 projected in 75. ADP on Sep 18: Yahoo 135, Fantrax 120, ESPN 219.

Snuggerud finished last season at 0.73 points per game, well short of where the model expects him to land this year. At 22, he sits squarely in the age-curve window where players typically step forward, and his young-player growth factor signals he has expanded faster than age alone would predict. The jump to 0.90 points per game rests mainly on age curve (0.06) and young-player growth (0.04), with league calibration (0.07) providing additional lift. His 77 games across two seasons leave some uncertainty, which pulls the projection back slightly, but the fundamentals point upward.

Robert Thomas remains his anchor at centre, the two having shared 428 even-strength minutes last season and projecting for another run together at 1.04 points per game. Dylan Holloway holds the left-wing spot after 335 shared minutes, with his 0.86 from last season suggesting stability rather than a breakthrough. The departures of Jordan Kyrou and Jonathan Drouin clear depth but leave Snuggerud's core partnership intact. On the power play, he moves to the first unit alongside Thomas, Buchnevich, Mailloux, and McTavish, where his 2:16 per night last season figures to expand. The projection of 15 power-play points, up from 9, reflects both elevated usage and the quality of talent arrayed alongside him.

2. Quinn Hughes, MIN

Defenceman, 26. 1.03 to 1.17 points a game (+0.15). 76 points in 74 games last season, 92 projected in 78. ADP on Sep 18: Yahoo 12, Fantrax 16, ESPN 30.

Quinn Hughes finished 2025-26 with 76 points in 74 games, a 1.03 points-per-game rate that the model sees as undercooked. Finishing luck accounts for 0.05 of his projected 0.15-point jump to 1.17, meaning his chances last season simply didn't convert at the rate they should have. Elite retention adds another 0.05, a correction that prevents top scorers from being needlessly projected downward. At 26, he faces a modest headwind from the age curve of 0.03, but the model's league calibration of 0.09 points per game reflects how scoring distributes across his tier. His 224 games across 3 seasons leave a small sample-size pull of 0.01 working against him, yet the bulk of the movement points to natural regression toward what his underlying game typically produces.

Brock Faber remains his defence partner after sharing 829 even-strength minutes last season, a pairing the team has confirmed holds at the first pair. Hughes also worked with Kirill Kaprizov for 498 minutes and Ryan Hartman for 389 minutes in even-strength situations, both of whom project on the first line alongside him. On the power play, Hughes anchors the first unit with Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy and Brock Faber, projecting for 38 power-play points after 34 last season. The departures of Mats Zuccarello, who shared 384 even-strength minutes with him, and Vladimir Tarasenko at 230 minutes mean less competition for touches in transition, a quiet tailwind for his total as the offense reorganizes.

3. Cole Perfetti, WPG

Left wing, 24. 0.47 to 0.60 points a game (+0.13). 32 points in 68 games last season, 44 projected in 73. ADP on Sep 18: Fantrax 255.

Cole Perfetti's breakout is rooted in variance and track record. He finished last season at 0.47 points per game, well below what his shot quality and positioning typically yield, and finishing luck accounts for 0.06 of his projected rise to 0.60. His earlier seasons also looked better than 2025-26 did, adding another 0.03 to the outlook. At 24, he sits at an age where forwards naturally tick upward by 0.01. The model leans on these three factors over noise, expecting him to cash in on chances he created but didn't convert and to lean on the production baseline he established before last season's dip.

Adam Lowry remains his primary center after 371 even-strength minutes together, though Lowry's own projection edges up from 0.30 to 0.36. Alex Iafallo arrives as the right wing on the pairing, carrying 0.35 as his projection after a slight dip from 0.37 last season, and has only 121 even-strength minutes logged with Perfetti so far. The bigger shift is up front: Gabriel Vilardi, who anchored 419 minutes with Perfetti last season, has moved to the first line, while Jonathan Toews (332 even-strength minutes shared) has departed. On special teams, Perfetti has been moved to the first power-play unit after camp, joining Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor and Vilardi. That assignment carries weight, with his power-play production expected to climb from 6 to 10.

4. Mason McTavish, STL

Centre, 23. 0.55 to 0.67 points a game (+0.13). 41 points in 75 games last season, 51 projected in 76. ADP on Sep 18: Yahoo 132, Fantrax 234, ESPN 228.

McTavish's 0.55 points per game last season undersold what his underlying performance suggested. His earlier seasons ran better than 2025-26, anchoring the model's expectation that he rebounds, and he left goals on the table, his conversion rate should tick up. At 23, he sits in the age curve window where players typically improve. Together, those forces project him for 0.67 points per game, a rise of 0.13 from last season's output of 41 points in 75 games. The move from ANA to STL brings fresh ice time in a second-line role.

The linemate equation starts from scratch. Pavel Buchnevich and Connor McMichael are both new to him, neither shared even-strength ice with McTavish last season. Buchnevich was at 0.59 last year and projects to 0.67; McMichael also moves from 0.59 to 0.66. McTavish's prior wings (Sennecke, Gauthier) and depth defenders (LaCombe) stayed in Anaheim. On the power play, he lands on the first unit with Buchnevich and Robert Thomas, though Dylan Holloway is contesting for a forward slot with 5.6 points at stake. If McTavish holds his seat and the even-strength pairing takes hold, 13 power-play points are in reach against 11 last season.

5. Connor Bedard, CHI

Centre, 21. 1.09 to 1.21 points a game (+0.12). 75 points in 69 games last season, 81 projected in 67. ADP on Sep 18: Yahoo 65, Fantrax 51, ESPN 53.

Bedard enters 2026-27 with a natural opening to build on last season's 1.09 points per game. The age curve favors him at 21, a stage when players typically add 0.10 points per game; his earlier seasons pull back the projection by 0.09, since last year already exceeded what came before. Elite retention adds another 0.05, a correction that keeps top scorers from declining as sharply as the model would otherwise assume. Together with league calibration contributing 0.08, these forces project him forward 0.12 points per game, landing him at 1.21 and 81 points across 67 games. The projection respects his short 219-game sample by applying a modest 0.02 pull toward the average.

His supporting cast has shifted. Andre Burakovsky, who logged 584 even-strength minutes with him last season, has departed for Ottawa; Ryan Greene, his second-most common partner at 561 minutes, slides to the third line in the interim depth chart. Camp lines have not yet named him on any reported forward combination, leaving his linemates unconfirmed heading into the season. Power-play positioning also remains unsettled, with him currently off both units despite posting 21 power-play points last season. If he lands consistent even-strength partners and regains a meaningful power-play role, the 24-point projection there holds ground; if the reshuffled forward group keeps him displaced from top partnerships, his rise could stall. He carries a shoulder injury into camp, though the points projection already factors in missed games.

Health note: our injuries table has him out (shoulder). The games projection already reflects it; the per-game rate does not.

Build your own list

Five is one cut of the division. Below is every Central skater with 10+ games last season: filter by position, club, age, games and projected rate, sort by rise or by drop, and press any player for his waterfall. Not yet arrived applies the breakout rule: under 65 points last season and never 0.85 a game in any of the last three seasons.

Every Central skater: build your own list
000.250.250.50.50.750.75111.251.251.51.5no change2025-26 P/GP2026-27 P/GPJimmy Snuggerud (STL, R): 0.73 to 0.90Quinn Hughes (MIN, D): 1.03 to 1.17Daniil But (UTA, L): 0.24 to 0.37Cole Perfetti (WPG, L): 0.47 to 0.60Mason McTavish (STL, C): 0.55 to 0.67Connor Bedard (CHI, C): 1.09 to 1.21Barrett Hayton (UTA, C): 0.37 to 0.49Ryan Greene (CHI, C): 0.36 to 0.47Jonathan Marchessault (NSH, R): 0.50 to 0.60Nazem Kadri (COL, C): 0.65 to 0.75Artyom Levshunov (CHI, D): 0.35 to 0.46Devon Toews (COL, D): 0.35 to 0.45Frank Nazar (CHI, C): 0.62 to 0.71Oliver Moore (CHI, C): 0.37 to 0.46Ross Colton (NSH, L): 0.33 to 0.41Anders Lee (UTA, L): 0.51 to 0.59Clayton Keller (UTA, R): 1.07 to 1.15Pavel Buchnevich (STL, L): 0.59 to 0.67Dmitri Simashev (UTA, D): 0.04 to 0.11Danila Yurov (MIN, C): 0.37 to 0.44Ryan Donato (CHI, C): 0.37 to 0.44Connor McMichael (STL, C): 0.59 to 0.66MacKenzie Weegar (UTA, D): 0.35 to 0.42Thomas Harley (DAL, D): 0.51 to 0.58Neal Pionk (WPG, D): 0.24 to 0.30Roope Hintz (DAL, C): 0.83 to 0.89Cale Makar (COL, D): 1.05 to 1.11Vladislav Namestnikov (WPG, C): 0.23 to 0.29Adam Lowry (WPG, C): 0.30 to 0.36Logan O'Connor (COL, R): 0.15 to 0.21Dalibor Dvorsky (STL, C): 0.30 to 0.35Fedor Svechkov (COL, C): 0.24 to 0.29Logan Cooley (UTA, C): 0.80 to 0.84Mikko Rantanen (DAL, R): 1.20 to 1.25Gavin Brindley (COL, C): 0.23 to 0.28Bobby Brink (MIN, R): 0.44 to 0.48Nino Niederreiter (WPG, R): 0.31 to 0.35Robert Thomas (STL, C): 1.00 to 1.04Sam Rinzel (CHI, D): 0.26 to 0.30Teuvo Teravainen (CHI, C): 0.47 to 0.51Brandon Tanev (UTA, L): 0.05 to 0.09Nicolas Roy (COL, C): 0.34 to 0.38Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN, C): 0.73 to 0.76Andrew Mangiapane (CHI, L): 0.26 to 0.29Dylan Guenther (UTA, R): 0.92 to 0.96Nick Lardis (CHI, L): 0.37 to 0.40Gabriel Landeskog (COL, L): 0.58 to 0.62Matt Duchene (DAL, C): 0.79 to 0.82Kirill Kaprizov (MIN, L): 1.14 to 1.17Brady Skjei (NSH, D): 0.32 to 0.35Jack McBain (UTA, C): 0.33 to 0.36Colton Parayko (STL, D): 0.23 to 0.26Nils Hoglander (NSH, L): 0.13 to 0.16Matthew Wood (NSH, R): 0.42 to 0.45Vincent Trocheck (UTA, C): 0.79 to 0.81Wyatt Johnston (DAL, C): 1.05 to 1.07Cam Fowler (STL, D): 0.37 to 0.39Alex Vlasic (CHI, D): 0.26 to 0.28Ethan Del Mastro (CHI, D): 0.05 to 0.07Nathan MacKinnon (COL, C): 1.59 to 1.60Zachary L'Heureux (COL, L): 0.20 to 0.21Artturi Lehkonen (COL, L): 0.69 to 0.70Tyler Seguin (DAL, C): 0.63 to 0.64Jake Neighbours (STL, L): 0.52 to 0.53Kevin Stenlund (UTA, C): 0.23 to 0.23Philip Broberg (STL, D): 0.42 to 0.43Nick Foligno (MIN, C): 0.28 to 0.28Tyler Myers (DAL, D): 0.15 to 0.15Kyle Connor (WPG, L): 1.12 to 1.12Josh Morrissey (WPG, D): 0.71 to 0.72Bowen Byram (CHI, D): 0.51 to 0.51Roman Josi (NSH, D): 0.81 to 0.81Maxim Shabanov (MIN, R): 0.41 to 0.41Pius Suter (STL, C): 0.45 to 0.45Miro Heiskanen (DAL, D): 0.82 to 0.82Gabriel Vilardi (WPG, R): 0.84 to 0.84Jack Drury (NSH, C): 0.33 to 0.32Otto Stenberg (STL, C): 0.31 to 0.31Mavrik Bourque (NSH, C): 0.50 to 0.49Blake Coleman (MIN, L): 0.51 to 0.50Kevin Korchinski (CHI, D): 0.15 to 0.15Tyler Pitlick (MIN, C): 0.06 to 0.05Justin Hryckowian (DAL, C): 0.37 to 0.36Alex Iafallo (WPG, L): 0.37 to 0.35Jared Spurgeon (MIN, D): 0.28 to 0.27Patrick Kane (CHI, R): 0.85 to 0.84Jason Robertson (DAL, L): 1.17 to 1.16Brett Kulak (COL, D): 0.14 to 0.13Logan Mailloux (STL, D): 0.19 to 0.18Brandon Carlo (STL, D): 0.13 to 0.11Alexey Toropchenko (STL, R): 0.17 to 0.15Zakhar Bardakov (COL, C): 0.17 to 0.15Jamie Benn (DAL, L): 0.60 to 0.58Jaden Schwartz (COL, L): 0.52 to 0.50Dylan Samberg (WPG, D): 0.21 to 0.19Yakov Trenin (MIN, C): 0.28 to 0.26Matt Boldy (MIN, L): 1.12 to 1.10Landon Slaggert (CHI, L): 0.13 to 0.11Adam Wilsby (NSH, D): 0.28 to 0.25Dylan Holloway (STL, L): 0.86 to 0.84Justin Barron (NSH, D): 0.17 to 0.14Haydn Fleury (WPG, D): 0.11 to 0.07Filip Forsberg (NSH, L): 0.91 to 0.88Marcus Foligno (MIN, L): 0.23 to 0.20Nick Perbix (NSH, D): 0.16 to 0.13Michael Carcone (UTA, L): 0.39 to 0.36Jordan Greenway (CHI, L): 0.15 to 0.11Cole Smith (CHI, R): 0.19 to 0.15Mikhail Sergachev (UTA, D): 0.76 to 0.72Jack Finley (STL, C): 0.11 to 0.07Ozzy Wiesblatt (NSH, C): 0.13 to 0.09Isak Rosen (WPG, R): 0.27 to 0.23Brad Lambert (WPG, C): 0.24 to 0.20Dylan DeMelo (WPG, D): 0.23 to 0.19Oskar Bäck (DAL, C): 0.17 to 0.13Liam O'Brien (UTA, C): 0.11 to 0.06Michael McCarron (MIN, C): 0.22 to 0.17Elias Salomonsson (WPG, D): 0.16 to 0.11John Marino (UTA, D): 0.45 to 0.41Nick Schmaltz (UTA, C): 0.90 to 0.86Jonas Brodin (MIN, D): 0.29 to 0.24Alexander Kerfoot (NSH, C): 0.38 to 0.33Sam Steel (DAL, C): 0.45 to 0.40Justin Kirkland (MIN, C): 0.10 to 0.05Zach Bogosian (MIN, D): 0.15 to 0.09Esa Lindell (DAL, D): 0.39 to 0.34Ryan Hartman (MIN, C): 0.57 to 0.51Reid Schaefer (NSH, L): 0.17 to 0.11Ilya Lyubushkin (NSH, D): 0.17 to 0.11Cole Koepke (WPG, L): 0.26 to 0.20Vinnie Hinostroza (COL, C): 0.28 to 0.22Josh Manson (COL, D): 0.39 to 0.33Colin Blackwell (DAL, C): 0.21 to 0.15Ryan O'Reilly (NSH, C): 0.91 to 0.85Oskar Sundqvist (STL, C): 0.33 to 0.26Radek Faksa (DAL, C): 0.29 to 0.23Joel Kiviranta (DAL, L): 0.18 to 0.11Andrew Peeke (UTA, D): 0.18 to 0.11Lian Bichsel (DAL, D): 0.16 to 0.09Brock Faber (MIN, D): 0.64 to 0.56Brock Nelson (COL, C): 0.80 to 0.72Nico Sturm (MIN, C): 0.22 to 0.15Mario Ferraro (WPG, D): 0.28 to 0.20Adam Edstrom (NSH, C): 0.14 to 0.06Martin Necas (COL, R): 1.28 to 1.20Nate Schmidt (UTA, D): 0.27 to 0.18Jonatan Berggren (STL, R): 0.43 to 0.34Kyle Capobianco (DAL, D): 0.15 to 0.06Olli Maatta (MIN, D): 0.35 to 0.25Tyler Bertuzzi (CHI, L): 0.73 to 0.64Morgan Barron (WPG, C): 0.35 to 0.26Lawson Crouse (UTA, L): 0.54 to 0.44Nils Lundkvist (DAL, D): 0.21 to 0.11Ian Cole (CHI, D): 0.28 to 0.18Noah Juulsen (COL, D): 0.19 to 0.09Brent Burns (COL, D): 0.43 to 0.33Steven Stamkos (NSH, C): 0.80 to 0.70Daemon Hunt (MIN, D): 0.19 to 0.08Nicolas Hague (NSH, D): 0.24 to 0.13Kailer Yamamoto (UTA, R): 0.39 to 0.28Nick DeSimone (UTA, D): 0.20 to 0.09Wyatt Kaiser (CHI, D): 0.22 to 0.11Tyler Tucker (STL, D): 0.25 to 0.14Sam Malinski (COL, D): 0.49 to 0.38Mark Scheifele (WPG, C): 1.26 to 1.14Parker Kelly (COL, C): 0.43 to 0.30Ross Johnston (STL, L): 0.23 to 0.09Nathan Walker (STL, L): 0.24 to 0.10Arttu Hyry (DAL, C): 0.25 to 0.11Noah Gregor (WPG, L): 0.24 to 0.09Jack St. Ivany (WPG, D): 0.35 to 0.15
71 of 171 skaters match; the top 15 are listed.
PlayerTeamPosAgeGP2025-262026-27GainYahoo ADP
Jimmy SnuggerudSTLR22700.730.90+0.17135
Quinn HughesMIND26741.031.17+0.1512
Cole PerfettiWPGL24680.470.60+0.13–
Mason McTavishSTLC23750.550.67+0.13132
Connor BedardCHIC21691.091.21+0.1265
Barrett HaytonUTAC26670.370.49+0.12–
Ryan GreeneCHIC22810.360.47+0.11–
Jonathan MarchessaultNSHR35620.500.60+0.10–
Nazem KadriCOLC35770.650.75+0.10146
Artyom LevshunovCHID20680.350.46+0.10–
Devon ToewsCOLD32680.350.45+0.09133
Frank NazarCHIC22660.620.71+0.09–
Oliver MooreCHIC21510.370.46+0.08–
Ross ColtonNSHL30730.330.41+0.08–
Anders LeeUTAL36820.510.59+0.08–
Points per game. Press a dot or a row for that player's term-by-term waterfall.

Where this is most likely to be wrong

Calibration and elite retention are league-level. They are measured on how the whole league's scoring is shaped and they move every good player a little; a rise that rests mostly on them is the projection correcting its own shape, not a claim about the player.

The age and experience terms are averages. They are what players of his age and games have done, measured across a decade, and the one in front of you can be the exception in either direction.

Linemates are our depth chart, not a coach's. The lines in each story are our projection of camp; shared minutes are measured from last season's shift records. A line that changes in October changes the story, not the number.

Projections are for the 2026-27 season, 84 games. Last-season figures are regular season only. The terms are recorded from the projection's own run and sum to each change exactly; ages are on 1 October. Player sections are written from a fact sheet of our own data and checked against it before they run.

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